Okay...so, there have been many responses to my hypothetical scenario...of minutes played and points scored as I thought there would be. Keep in mind I said that it would be hard to keep this team from scoring 100 points. My reasons for this are many and multi-faceted. 1. The minutes assigned to the big four are almost identical to last years...with an average difference of about 3 minutes. 2. The big four have played together now and won championships...their chemistry will be better than ever. 4. I do not think Butler gets to many more minutes than 12 minutes...why? Because the minutes will have to come from someone else and there are a number of dynamics involved when deciding from whom to take minutes. 5. Starting with Gabby...she proved herself last year and she played 15.6 minutes per game. Taking minutes away from a player like Gabby who more than likely has improved since her freshman year doesn't seem plausible. 6. Now let's look at Saniya...Saniya last year during the first part of the year had earned Geno's praises as he said that at times she was the best player on the floor. Saniya will be expected to play significant minutes at the point guard in her senior year as freshman Dangerfield adjusts to the college game. She played 19.0 minutes last year so, cutting her minutes to 17 minutes in my scenario is not really preferred but expecting additional cuts to Saniya's PT is unrealistic. 7. Courtney Ekmark missed much of the early season last year and spent the rest of the season trying to catch up with the play of her fellow freshmen...Gabby and Kia. Ekmark came to UConn with a considerable amount of hype regarding her lights out 3 point shooting which makes me think that Geno is going to want to give her time to get her shot going. She played 9 + minutes last year, so, assuming that Ekmark will both improve and not have to overcome a slow start as she did last year giving her 12 minutes per game seems to be the fair thing to do. 8. The walk-ons averaged 3.9 (Lawlor) and 2.5 (Pulido). Let's remember why the walk-ons were encouraged to join the team...remember Geno's bench was very short due to injuries and transfers. While I like them a lot...Tierney a little better as she earned a 2nd degree blackbelt in my karate school I do not see them cracking any more minutes this season in fact I see their minutes being cut ever so slightly in order to make room for this very talented group of freshmen + Natalie Butler. So, no more minutes to Butler from the walk-ons. 9. Now we get to the first of our freshmen...De'Janae Boykins will probably get the least minutes of the group...at 10 minutes...anything less is going to invite a transfer in the off season. De'Janae will need at least 10 minutes in order to develop into a contributing player going forward. Don't forget she is a talented 6'2" to 6'3" player who is extremely athletic and can rebound and score. 10. Katie Lou Samuelson will be extremely difficult to keep off the floor. Her size, her ability to shoot the basketball with limitless range and with her quick release will earn her minutes and quite frankly giving her only 15 minutes seems to be counter-productive...so, Natalie will not get any of Katie Lou's minutes... 12. That leaves Napheesa Collier...this is my opinion and some here may not agree with me...however, I believe that of all the freshmen Naphessa is the best suited right now for the college game. Napheesa is a work-horse...she never takes a play off, her hustle, her ability to score from inside and outside makes her extremely versatile. I think Geno is going to fall in love with her and it is going to be even more difficult to keep Naphessa off the court. Giving her only 15 minutes is going to be next to impossible. So, unfortunately for Natalie, I don't see her getting any of Napheesa's minutes.
Now, lets talk about scoring... 1. Last year Breanna averaged 17.6 points in about 28 minutes per game. Cutting her minutes to 25 minutes...will not cut into her average at all....in fact, Diana Taurasi's comment is still ringing in my ears...where she admonished the women's college basketball world when she said, "if you want to beat Uconn for the championship it better be this year, because Stewie isn't losing the championship her senior year". So, expecting Breanna to raise her average from 1.4 points per game despite a cut of 3 minutes per game isn't unrealistic. 2. Next we have Morgan Tuck who had a slow start, at the beginning of the season. She still managed to average 14.4 points in 25 minutes of play. Given Morgan's consistent play and her effectiveness with the basketball it was very difficult to cut 2 minutes of playing time in order to give it to the freshmen and Natalie Butler. I do not think that expecting Morgan to only duplicate her scoring average with 2 minutes less playing time is unrealistic. 3. Next we have Moriah Jefferson...who could forget how Moriah struggled with her three point shot in the beginning of the season only to be offset with her off the charts 3 point shooting later in the season. Moriah is probably the most important player to have on the floor, so you can imagine how difficult it was to cut 2.5 minutes per game from Moriah. Regardless of these facts expecting Moriah to increase her average 1.6 points with 2.5 fewer minutes is not at all unrealistic. 4. Rounding out the "big 4" is Kia Nurse. Who on this board doesn't expect Kia to be an improved version of herself...especially after watching her put the Canadian team on her shoulders and scoring over 30 points on route to defeating a USA team led by Breanna Stewart and Moriah Jefferson. So, who would think it unrealistic that Kia would improve her average by 2 points while playing the same minutes? 5. Gabby Williams was a scoring machine hitting 63.7 % of her shots in route to aveaging 8.3 points in 15.6 minutes making her one of the most effective UConn players. I could easily make the case that Gabby should be getting more minutes instead of 40 seconds less per game and only placing an expectation of increasing her scoring average by 1.7 points in 40 seconds less PT given the expected improvement of this player is extremely plausible. 6. Saniya Chong was a scoring machine in high school...she had shown at times that she can be that player in college. What she hasn't been is consistent. She played 19 minutes last season and averaged 5.6 points per game. There were times that she did not even look for her shot. Even though she will be expected to play significant minutes at the PG during her senior year...it hurt to have to cut 2 minutes from her PT. But, even by doing so...I have to believe that if it isn't this year it isn't going to be for Saniya. I think she will break out this season and expecting an increase of 1.4 points per game to her average is in line with her expected emergence as the heir apparent to Moriah Jefferson. 7. Courtney Ekmark had a very slow start to the season and her confidence took a hit as she struggled find a rhythm as she was inserted herself into the rotation. I believe that expecting Courtney to average 1.1 more points per game with 2.3 more minutes per game. 8. Now we get to the walk-ons...and, I have basically only cut their minutes by 1.4 collectively and have left their point production basically the same. 9. Finally, we get to the 4 new players who have to be integrated into the line-up. I have already made the case for the minutes above....now, with regards to points scored. A. Remember Natalie Butler averaged a double / double for Georgetown while playing in the new Big East Conference....so, expecting her to score 6 points with reduced minutes is not unrealistic. B. De'Janae Boykins averaged the following in high school: 21.1 ppg., 15.8 rpg., 7.1 apg., 3.2 spg. She averaged 8.4 points and 7.6 rebounds, won a gold medal while playing USA basketball. As the 23 pick over all, I don't think expecting 4 points per game out of De'Janae is asking too much. C. Katie Lou Samuelson scored 29.2 points per game while grabbing 8.6 rebounds per game. As the number one pick for her class...I ask you is asking Katie Lou to average 8 points per game too much??? You might say with limited minutes like 15 minutes per game her production will be down well, my answer to that is how many minutes per game do you think she averaged in high school. D. Last but not at all least is my pick for the gem of the class...Naphessa Collier...averaged 26.2 points per game and 13 rebounds per game....so, expecting Ms. Collier to average 7 point per game in 15 minutes of play is well within the realm of possibility. THUS: I stand behind my original post that it will be very hard to prevent UConn from scoring 100 points. I also stipulated that the only way to stop UConn from scoring 100 points is for Geno to take his foot off the gas or to give the reserves a lot of minutes. But, taking minutes away from the veterans is going to be difficult. And, you can't expect the players to come down the court and not try to score.
And there are about 11 All-AAC threats.
