I don't think the 4 team playoff will last long..

[whaler11]

Florida State will probably run the table and therefore end up in the playoff.

You could make a pretty solid argument they would be the 6th best team in the SEC.

 

[Jimdish255]

An FSU loss last night left open the probability that 2 SEC teams, Oregon and ND would be the four. ND still has a shot which means 2 of the P5 could stay home, maybe three. That can't be the preferred outcome. More likely they will look to include as many P5 leagues as possible because that's implicitly what they were charged to do. SEC won't be happy but everyone else will.

 

[whaler11]

An FSU loss last night left open the probability that 2 SEC teams, Oregon and ND would be the four. ND still has a shot which means 2 of the P5 could stay home, maybe three. They will probably look to include as many P5 leagues as possible because that's implicitly what they were charged to do. SEC won't be happy but everyone else will.

There are at least 15 teams that if they run the table they will be in. (There are a dozen playoff games every week - which is why over expansion would be a horrible thing).

The SEC still has a chance at 2 if Georgia runs the table. If they beat a Mississippi school in the championship game I could see Georgia + Alabama/Auburn going.

Oregon losing again would really open things up.

As an aside the AP poll can be funny. Someone gave Texas A&M a vote.

 

[noeynox]

Which 5 teams in the SEC are better than FSU? FSU beat an undefeated Auburn team in the title game last year. Ole Miss and Miss State are great stories and have really good teams, I don't think I'd pick either on a neutral field against FSU if Winston is playing. I say this knowing FSU is slightly not as good as they were last year.

 

[CTpessimist]

It should be 7 or 8. Winners of P5, best in G5, and then 1 or 2 at large. If 7, best team gets a bye which would be a fun debate still over who deserves it. Otherwise home game for top 4 and then off to big bowls.

 

[whaler11]

Which 5 teams in the SEC are better than FSU? FSU beat an undefeated Auburn team in the title game last year. Ole Miss and Miss State are great stories and have really good teams, I don't think I'd pick either on a neutral field against FSU if Winston is playing. I say this knowing FSU is slightly not as good as they were last year.

Well it's 2014 so a 2013 game doesn't much matter.

But Ole Miss, Miss St and Alabama clearly are. Auburn and Georgia would be an argument.

Florida State's problem is their defense. It's not anywhere near an NC level.

 

[SubbaBub]

SEC Champ is in.
Undefeated FSU is in, if they lose, they are out.

One of the B1G, B12, P12 champs will be left out. Maybe two if FSU makes it. The fix is growning for the SEC West runner up and a 1 loss ND to take spots.

It's also time for the annual BS call of 4 of the top 5 teams coming from the SEC. Miss St looks the part, but then again they are Miss St, so they can't be counted on.

1. Miss St/Ole Miss winner of SEC
2. FSU winner of ACC
3. MSU/OSU winner if B1G
4. Oregon/Arizona St. winner of P12

First runner up is one-loss ND
Second runner up is B12 Champ TCU
Third runner up is your one loss SEC West runner up.

We'll have an 8 team playoff by Easter.

 

[whaler11]

Well if you want to pick teams based on criteria other than 2014 you can pretty much pick whoever you like.

Nobody from the ACC other than FSU has a prayer.

 

[Jimdish255]

There are at least 15 teams that if they run the table they will be in. (There are a dozen playoff games every week - which is why over expansion would be a horrible thing).

Sorry about my edits. Agreed the regular season is enhanced by the 4 team system but would still hold interest with 8. Problem with 8 is too much time and expense for fans to attend multiple games and starts to look like pros. Offset a bit by non-P5 interest with an underdog or 2 in the mix. . If the 4 team playoff starts to look too regional that could be a problem.

 

[metsfan2323]

Well it's 2014 so a 2013 game doesn't much matter.

But Ole Miss, Miss St and Alabama clearly are. Auburn and Georgia would be an argument.

Florida State's problem is their defense. It's not anywhere near an NC level.

We're at the halfway point, you are jumping the gun just a little. The SEC is a near lock for 2 and may get three, a lot of dust still needs to settle. The playoff will be wonderful and of course it should go to 8.

 

[whaler11]

We're at the halfway point, you are jumping the gun just a little. The SEC is a near lock for 2 and may get three, a lot of dust still needs to settle. The playoff will be wonderful and of course it should go to 8.

What am I jumping the gun on? Thinking about it?

There is no way to get three. Two is going to be a stretch unless Oregon loses.

 

[SubbaBub]

Sorry about my edits. Agreed the regular season is enhanced by the 4 team system but would still hold interest with 8. Problem with 8 is too much time and expense for fans to attend multiple games and starts to look like pros. Offset a bit by non-P5 interest with an underdog or 2 in the mix. . If the 4 team playoff starts to look too regional that could be a problem.

You can do a home site first round second week of December. Semi-finals at site close to the Final's site the week before the final. Travel is reduced to one flight and a rental car for the week.

5 autobids and 3 at-larges. They can hold a thunderdome level debate over giving one at large to the G5, but given the recent split, I doubt they will feel obligated

Schedule leaves time for those pesky things like finals, and gives the opening round losers a change to accept another bowl bid if they wish to allow that.

 

[whaler11]

The G5 doesn't deserve an autobid. No offense to Marshall or East Carolina but they don't have the resume and don't even come near passing the eye test.

 

[metsfan2323]

What am I jumping the gun on? Thinking about it?

No but suggesting there will be a national outcry if an undefeated FSU team makes the tournament seems a bit silly.

 

[whaler11]

No but suggesting there will be a national outcry if an undefeated FSU team makes the tournament seems a bit silly.

There won't be a national outcry. Who said that?

But teams better than FSU will be left out because of the huge gap in conference schedules - and that will drive change.

 

[SubbaBub]

The G5 doesn't deserve an autobid. No offense to Marshall or East Carolina but they don't have the resume and don't even come near passing the eye test.

Certainly not this year, and we don't yet know how much the TV will prevent the occasional upstart from winning a BCS level game, but if history repeats itself, one might be warranted. NO way the P5 agree at first, they'd need to be forced and unlike past years, their media partners AKA the one's that influence the opinions of the committee for 10 weeks prior to their first vote won't be pushing Cinderella anymore.

 

[whaler11]

Certainly not this year, and we don't yet know how much the TV will prevent the occasional upstart from winning a BCS level game, but if history repeats itself, one might be warranted. NO way the P5 agree at first, they'd need to be forced and unlike past years, their media partners AKA the one's that influence the opinions of the committee for 10 weeks prior to their first vote won't be pushing Cinderella anymore.

If you have three at larges they can earn one. Boise and Cinci had teams that could have. But looking at the environment there is no case to be made for an auto bid.

If they did have one this year it would be a funny process to see how they picked if ECU and Marshall (and maybe Colorado State) won out.

 

[ibleedhuskyblue]

No matter how many teams there are, there will always be a gripe from a team left out. It's better than the old system, wherein there were plenty of undeserving teams playing in the NC game, or BCS bowls because of scheduling.

What is your alternative Whaler ?

 

[huskysupporter]

I think 8 is the perfect number.

 

[whaler11]

No matter how many teams there are, there will always be a gripe from a team left out. It's better than the old system, wherein there were plenty of undeserving teams playing in the NC game, or BCS bowls because of scheduling.

What is your alternative Whaler ?

Format is fine. Selection will be broken.

 

[ibleedhuskyblue]

Format is fine. Selection will be broken.

What do you propose as a fix ?

 

[whaler11]

What do you propose as a fix ?

A selection committee that knows what they are looking at. One that understands strength of schedule most importantly.

 

[Dooley]

Thus far, as of today, my order would be:

1. Mississippi St.
2. Ole Miss
3. Alabama
4. FSU
5. Oregon
6. Auburn
7. Michigan St
8. Notre Dame
9. TCU
10. Ohio St.

Top 3 are SEC and obviously two of them will lose a game between now and the playoff. I agree with others in that if FSU loses one game, they're out with no hope of getting back in unless Oregon, Auburn, MSU, and ND all lose. A 1-loss FSU team could probably be powerful enough to stay ahead of TCU and OSU even if those two run the table.

SEC Champ will be #1 obviously. If FSU runs the table, they are #2. If they lose 1 game to anyone left on their mediocre schedule, they are firmly out based on how they've played thus far. Then it gets interesting. Will 1 or 2 one-loss SEC teams finish out the Top 4? My guess is that Oregon will crack the 4 if they run the table. I think a 1 loss Bama, Auburn and Ole Miss are better bets than a 1 loss MSU or ND. TCU and OSU will need to run the table and for a lot of help.

 

[ibleedhuskyblue]

A selection committee that knows what they are looking at. One that understands strength of schedule most importantly.

But this one hasn't even made any choices yet. How can they already need to be replaced ?

 

[whaler11]

But this one hasn't even made any choices yet. How can they already need to be replaced ?

Because I've seen the list of statistics they have approved to be used in the selection process. It's already broken.