Has Conference Realignment at Last Reached a Lull? | The Boneyard

Has Conference Realignment at Last Reached a Lull?

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SIAP. AP: Jun 29, 2014
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/conference-realignment-reached-lull-24356933

Warning: more Louisville gushing.

Of note:

Of the 128 schools to play at the FBS level this season, more than 40 percent have made at least one move over the past decade. That figure doesn't even include the shake-ups of the mid-to-late 1990s that produced the Big 12, Conference USA and the Mountain West. Flip the calendar back 25 years and find only 48 teams that have stayed put. That means more than 62 percent of them switched during that span.
 
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The last paragraph is key. There may be a lull, but CR is not dead. Teams and conferences will always be looking to better themselves.
 
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The next mile marker in the realignment saga is whether Maryland and the ACC are settling the lawsuit. Mediation is supposed to be wrapped-up by Thursday. If no settlement is achieved, then this case is headed for trial soon. So, hopefully by the 10th we'll know the extent of the exit fee. If no settlement occurs, then hold onto your hats 'cause this thing is going into extra innings. Then it's time to talk trial strategy.
 

Dooley

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I think the lull is a result of what Rappin' Rodney hinted at: the Maryland lawsuit. The ACC is in a tough spot. They can't settle because that would devalue the $51M exit fee and might plant a seed of curiosity for other ACC schools (FSU, VT, UNC, UVA, GT) to want to challenge the exit fee in the future. But if they go to trial, they risk having all of their dirty laundry aired out in public (and also risk POSSIBLE lawsuits from other schools in the distant future...hmmm mmm...UCONN round 2). The best case scenario for the ACC would have been that Maryland goes quietly into the night and pays their $51M exit fee. But obviously Maryland feels that they have some sort of case here knowing that the ACC is in a tough spot with this. They are either going to get out by paying less than $51M OR the lawsuit will devalue the ACC (something that benefits Maryland's new conference). It's really a win-win for Maryland.

My hope: this gets settled for $30M range. UCONN needs to have this lawsuit settled quickly to move out of the AAC. The two conferences that UCONN fits in best with are both tied up with this lawsuit. Once it is settled, then the conferences can start to engage their "final pieces" expansion plans and, I think, that will include UCONN.
 
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The first take on that ESPN article is laughable. So the SEC is going to expand by adding Louisville (already own the state of Kentucky) and Miami (already own the state of Florida.) If the SEC expands they are going to hit new markets. The only teams that make sense are teams from Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Oklahoma.
 
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There is definitely a lull. The bigger question is whether it's a brief pause to assess the landscape and let everyone catch their breath, or if everyone is content to leave things as they are.
 

CTMike

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As noted, nothing changes until ACC/UMD case is settled.
 
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Every p5 school has been playing top tier football for over 50 years. We have to continue to pay our dues. Since we've been playing football for over 100 years overall, we'll be fine.

The AAC seems to be a wealthier eastern version of the MWC. Both will have military academies playing in them but the AAC has the youngest schools in USF and UCF. Boise State has been around for a while.
 
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I don't see the lawsuit as that big a deal.
If ACC get $30mm ,how exactly does that change anything?
Now if Maryland was challenging the GOR.
The only move in CR is if the Big 12 has to go to 12
This will not effect UConn
Or some kind of absorption of top G5 teams to give the impression that the P5 is not a cartel.
This most likely will effect UConn.
Keep your fingers crossed.
In the absence of those events it's over.
Our strategy should be a 5 to 10 year survival plan.
 
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I think the B1G will expand again. UConn needs admission into the AAU. After that, I think they are in.
 
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This same article where a commenter says he'd like to see Towson in the AAC or ACC in a few years....
 
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I don't see the lawsuit as that big a deal.
If ACC get $30mm ,how exactly does that change anything?
Now if Maryland was challenging the GOR.
The only move in CR is if the Big 12 has to go to 12
This will not effect UConn
Or some kind of absorption of top G5 teams to give the impression that the P5 is not a cartel.
This most likely will effect UConn.
Keep your fingers crossed.
In the absence of those events it's over.
Our strategy should be a 5 to 10 year survival plan.

I believe that you are correct...it is the GOR that has more to do with holding a conference together then the Exit Fee.

I think the ACC will keep the monies that it has withheld from Maryland via a settlement but will not obtain a judgement for more then what has been already sequestered.
 

CL82

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I believe that you are correct...it is the GOR that has more to do with holding a conference together then the Exit Fee.

I think the ACC will keep the monies that it has withheld from Maryland via a settlement but will not obtain a judgement for more then what has been already sequestered.
I think that number is close to the prior $20M fee exit fee. If so, I agree that is a possible outcome.
 
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I think that number is close to the prior $20M fee exit fee. If so, I agree that is a possible outcome.

I have been predicting a settlement of $27 million or so for over a year now. We shall see.
 
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I have been predicting a settlement of $27 million or so for over a year now. We shall see.
Hey Terry, if the parties don't reach a settlement, do you think that it is more probable that we will see a jury trial or a bench trial?
 
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