FiveThirtyEight looks at Breanna Stewart and the Huskies

[Sluconn Husky]

But the Huskies aren’t just garden-variety dominant, they’re axis-breaking-outlier dominant. To win as much and by as much as the Huskies have, you have to crush it on both ends of the court.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-the-breanna-stewart-era-in-college-basketball/

 

[JavaMan]

Great article! Here's a nibble:

On March 12, 2013, University of Connecticut freshman forward Breanna Stewart played 37 minutes. She scored 16 points but collected only two rebounds and one block while going 0-4 from 3-point range. With the game tied at 59 and less than 10 seconds to play, Skylar Diggins of Notre Dame stole the ball and dished it to Natalie Achonwa for the game-winning layup — it was the Fighting Irish’s third win against the Huskies in three months.

In the Final Four, less than a month later, the Huskies got their revenge. Stewart scored 29 points, grabbed five rebounds and threw in four blocks while hitting four of five 3-pointers, leading her team to an 83-65 victory and ultimately her first national championship. It’s been all uphill from there.

Since that 2013 loss to Notre Dame, the Huskies are 118-1, including tournaments. All 118 wins have been by double-digits, and 100 of them have been by 20 points or more. This includes 36 wins against ranked opponents, 21 against top-10 opponents, and a perfect 12-for-12 record against top-5s. Stewart’s Connecticut doesn’t just beat the best teams in the country, it beats them down.

 

[ChicagoGG]

That was a great read!! Thank you!!

 

[huskyd]

But the Huskies aren’t just garden-variety dominant, they’re axis-breaking-outlier dominant. To win as much and by as much as the Huskies have, you have to crush it on both ends of the court.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-the-breanna-stewart-era-in-college-basketball/

This is an amazing article. It paints Breanna as almost a Silent Assassin. She does so much so well so often that it creates a kind of blur and makes it difficult to describe her adequately (even in stats). In our on-going discussion of the best player in UConn history, this piece makes that point theat Bre's "a shot-blocking, rebound-grabbing, ball-stealing, assist-dishing big who can shoot from anywhere. Oh, and she plays great defense." Any other Husky fit this bill?

 

[seeya27]

The 538 blog does amazing work every day. Whether it is politics, sports and contemporary culture, it is always thoughtful analysis. They connect the dots on so many complex topics. But this is one of the few articles where one individual (not unlike Steph Curry) is such an outlier. Pretty damn impressive Breanna, Boy, saying you will be missed is an understatement to the 9th power.

 

[Wally East]

"a shot-blocking, rebound-grabbing, ball-stealing, assist-dishing big who can shoot from anywhere. Oh, and she plays great defense." Any other Husky fit this bill?

I'd feel okay about saying that regarding Maya (Maya is a little light on blocks while Stewie is a little light on steals in comparing one to the other).

Career totals, through game 33 of Stewie's senior season, normalized to show production on a per-40 minute basis. I included D just because.

stat Moore Stew DT
p/40 25.9 25.2 20.5
r/40 10.9 11.0 6.0
a/40 4.6 4.0 6.1
s/40 2.6 1.1 1.7
b/40 1.7 3.9 1.4
a/to 1.81 1.65 1.84
FG% 52.5 52.9 46.9
3p% 40.4 34.8 39.2
FT% 79.8 79.4 81.9

In terms of stats, you could make a case for Maya or Stewie. Statistically speaking, they both stand above D (Five points and five rebounds per 40 minutes is a lot to make up and 1.5 to 2 assists per game isn't enough.) (Cue the blah blah blah rings inexperienced team made her teammates better blah blah blah )

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I'd feel okay about saying that regarding Maya (Maya is a little light on blocks while Stewie is a little light on steals in comparing one to the other).

Career totals, through game 33 of Stewie's senior season, normalized to show production on a per-40 minute basis. I included D just because.

stat Moore Stew DT
p/40 25.9 25.2 20.5
r/40 10.9 11.0 6.0
a/40 4.6 4.0 6.1
s/40 2.6 1.1 1.7
b/40 1.7 3.9 1.4
a/to 1.81 1.65 1.84
FG% 52.5 52.9 46.9
3p% 40.4 34.8 39.2
FT% 79.8 79.4 81.9

In terms of stats, you could make a case for Maya or Stewie. Statistically speaking, they both stand above D (Five points and five rebounds per 40 minutes is a lot to make up and 1.5 to 2 assists per game isn't enough.) (Cue the blah blah blah rings inexperienced team made her teammates better blah blah blah )

Maya's athleticism and motor made her a great rebounder for her size and position. Stewart's passing sticks out as I believe she's as good a passer for a front court player as I've ever seen. One thing not measured in stats is how much of defensive force Breanna's become the last couple of years. Not many players in history have been able to disrupt from all parts of the court like she can.

 

[UcMiami]

I'd feel okay about saying that regarding Maya (Maya is a little light on blocks while Stewie is a little light on steals in comparing one to the other).

Career totals, through game 33 of Stewie's senior season, normalized to show production on a per-40 minute basis. I included D just because.

stat Moore Stew DT
p/40 25.9 25.2 20.5
r/40 10.9 11.0 6.0
a/40 4.6 4.0 6.1
s/40 2.6 1.1 1.7
b/40 1.7 3.9 1.4
a/to 1.81 1.65 1.84
FG% 52.5 52.9 46.9
3p% 40.4 34.8 39.2
FT% 79.8 79.4 81.9

In terms of stats, you could make a case for Maya or Stewie. Statistically speaking, they both stand above D (Five points and five rebounds per 40 minutes is a lot to make up and 1.5 to 2 assists per game isn't enough.) (Cue the blah blah blah rings inexperienced team made her teammates better blah blah blah )

I suspect that if you looked at the last three years of each of their careers the relationship would change a little. Moore had a really good freshman year start to finish, Stewart had a good start, a terrible middle and a great finish, and DT had a decent freshman season on a team with a lot of seniors and junior stars, and one disastrous final game. I think DT especially would benefit from that since she was the only one who came into a team with two senior AAs and two junior AAs as well as the two other TASS members - before injuries she was maybe the fourth option on offense!

 

[2Husky]

I like this chart, I wonder where Moriah and Morgan are.

 

[Wally East]

like this chart, I wonder where Moriah and Morgan are.

I was wondering exactly the same thing

 

[Wally East]

I suspect that if you looked at the last three years of each of their careers the relationship would change a little. Moore had a really good freshman year start to finish, Stewart had a good start, a terrible middle and a great finish, and DT had a decent freshman season on a team with a lot of seniors and junior stars, and one disastrous final game. I think DT especially would benefit from that since she was the only one who came into a team with two senior AAs and two junior AAs as well as the two other TASS members - before injuries she was maybe the fourth option on offense!

Here are the soph-senior numbers, all on a per-40 minute basis.

stat Stew Moore Taurasi
p/40 25.7 26.5 21.0
r/40 11.1 11.1 6.09
a/40 4.59 4.81 6.29
b/40 4.03 1.63 1.38
s/40 2.27 2.77 1.58
a/to 1.93 1.94 1.92
FG% 53.4 52.0 47.5
3p% 35.2 40.0 39.4
FT% 79.8 80.8 81.2

Here are the four year numbers again so you don't have to scroll (you're welcome ).


stat Stew Moore DT
p/40 25.2 25.9 20.5
r/40 11.00 10.90 6.00
a/40 4.00 4.60 6.10
b/40 3.90 1.70 1.40
s/40 1.10 2.60 1.70
a/to 1.65 1.81 1.84
FG% 52.9 52.5 46.9
3p% 34.8 40.4 39.2
FT% 79.4 79.8 81.9

Stewie and Maya catch up in assists while expanding the gaps in other categories.

 

[hoophuskee]

Here are the soph-senior numbers, all on a per-40 minute basis.

stat Stew Moore Taurasi
p/40 25.7 26.5 21.0
r/40 11.1 11.1 6.09
a/40 4.59 4.81 6.29
b/40 4.03 1.63 1.38
s/40 2.27 2.77 1.58
a/to 1.93 1.94 1.92
FG% 53.4 52.0 47.5
3p% 35.2 40.0 39.4
FT% 79.8 80.8 81.2

Here are the four year numbers again so you don't have to scroll (you're welcome ).


stat Stew Moore DT
p/40 25.2 25.9 20.5
r/40 11.00 10.90 6.00
a/40 4.00 4.60 6.10
b/40 3.90 1.70 1.40
s/40 1.10 2.60 1.70
a/to 1.65 1.81 1.84
FG% 52.9 52.5 46.9
3p% 34.8 40.4 39.2
FT% 79.4 79.8 81.9

Stewie and Maya catch up in assists while expanding the gaps in other categories.

I wonder if there were stats about "pace of play?"

And how about comparing stats within their respective seasons and at their position as an average and see how they did over that same average vs the entire league and vs the top ten?
For example as a pf the assists numbers are outstanding for both Maya and Stewie and the rebounding numbers for DT as a sg would be super if you would compare league average or maybe even top ten or top 50 average vs what they did you can see how dominant thy were in their era.

Lots of ways to look at stats. If you play quicker you are going to get higher numbers which would skew the data. OFC for these three super players none so far have let a vastly inferior team take them down in the NCAA's. Would also be interested to see how overall they did vs top ten with those advanced stats. Unfortunately don't think these type of stats are available for wcbb. My guess is similar- Maya wins. But with that I wonder how Lobo would do. And Tina's one year her senior year how great would it be considered vs other's top years using league averages and top ten averages for he season they played in? Almost like a "PER" but then comparing vs other seasons pace of play etc.

 

[UcMiami]

Thanks for the work Wally - interesting result. I thought there would have been a larger variation from their different situations as freshman.

Hoophuskee- a poor man's quick analysis - shots taken per game by Uconn:
DT Average: 60.7 - 65.3, 63.0, 58.5, 56.0
Maya Average: 61.0 - 64.1, 61.4, 60.6, 57.7
Stewart Avg: 63.9 - 63.1, 62.2, 64.4, 65.7*

The problem with any team numbers is of course they vary dramatically depending on opponent and score - starters play only 25 minutes in easy games, 35+ minutes in competitive games. And the pace of play even with starters in changes dramatically depending on score - 'calling off the dogs' when the team is content to work on half court offense and defense.

And counting shots does not deal with fouls, offensive rebounds, steals, and turnovers - I don't think you can really conclude anything much from the numbers above. Play a Villanova style offense two or three times a year and the average shots per game would go down, play a UNC or OSU and they go up - play Oregon from a few years ago and you might get 80+ shots. I suspect this year's average will drop a little with the next four games being more defensive minded than the season as a whole.

 

[baggerbob]

Thanks for the work Wally - interesting result. I thought there would have been a larger variation from their different situations as freshman.

Hoophuskee- a poor man's quick analysis - shots taken per game by Uconn:
DT Average: 60.7 - 65.3, 63.0, 58.5, 56.0
Maya Average: 61.0 - 64.1, 61.4, 60.6, 57.7
Stewart Avg: 63.9 - 63.1, 62.2, 64.4, 65.7*

The problem with any team numbers is of course they vary dramatically depending on opponent and score - starters play only 25 minutes in easy games, 35+ minutes in competitive games. And the pace of play even with starters in changes dramatically depending on score - 'calling off the dogs' when the team is content to work on half court offense and defense.

And counting shots does not deal with fouls, offensive rebounds, steals, and turnovers - I don't think you can really conclude anything much from the numbers above. Play a Villanova style offense two or three times a year and the average shots per game would go down, play a UNC or OSU and they go up - play Oregon from a few years ago and you might get 80+ shots. I suspect this year's average will drop a little with the next four games being more defensive minded than the season as a whole.

What you can't put a number on is, what happened the other night, 3 blocks, and suddenly, the opponents start looking for Stewie when they are on offense, no matter where they are.

 

[caramel]

This is why Stewart is above and beyond,http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-the-breanna-stewart-era-in-college-basketball/

 

[HGN]

Great article !!............... Stewie definitely is a game changer. And has almost single-handedly moved UConn from merely good+ to GREAT and DOMINANT. IF this years team
win the NC for a record 4th time in a row, she will definitely be in a Class of her own. And could be dubbed : THE GREATEST HUSKY EVER.

 

[j66kicker]

Just can't get enough of this one!

 

[HoopsFan21]

Just can't get enough of this one!

Me neither. That's pretty nuts!

 

[huskyd]

Just can't get enough of this one!

View attachment 12775

If this were a virus, you'd want everyone to catch it.

 

[hoophuskee]

What you can't put a number on is, what happened the other night, 3 blocks, and suddenly, the opponents start looking for Stewie when they are on offense, no matter where they are.

I can remember last year Mabrey or Cable in the finals drove the lane and had an easy layup but missed the layup badly. It wasn't even close. At the time in the game were I believe Stewie and Stokes. They didn't block the shot nor directly affect it -- but they did "affect it." Stats can't show that direct affect of intimidation and maybe change of style other than maybe fg% defense.