Every game counts this year (literally)

[HuskyBlue08]

My understanding is that if we go 10-2 and win the AAC, the best bowl game we can hope for is the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham vs. the 9th place SEC team.

We need to shoot for 11-1 so we have a chance at an at-large BCS bid.

 

[Palatine]

Why would we go for 11-1 and not 12-0?

 

[SubbaBub]

My understanding is that if we go 10-2 and win the AAC, the best bowl game we can hope for is the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham vs. the 9th place SEC team.

We need to shoot for 11-1 so we have a chance at an at-large BCS bid.

I'm pretty sure the G5 highest ranked by the committee gets into the BCS. This year 10-2 probably does it. The schedule for teams like NIU won't cut it. Only need to really worry about the MWC champ.

 

[ktuck911]

As long as we instill that winning mentality/attitude, the wins will come.. The last coaching staff as constructed (pre-TJ Weist as interim HC) was a glass half empty type it seemed. Diaco definitely gives us hope that we'll be way better. I see us surprising folks with an 8 win (regular) season and we get our juices flowing to continue to do better than that going fwd... We win the games we are 'supposed to' win...

 

[HuskyBlue08]

I think if we are 10-2 then we get passed by an 11-1 MWC team or an undefeated MAC team. Point being I won't feel comfortable about our bowl prospects unless we're 11-0 prior to the SMU game on December 6.

 

[sportsart]

I thought the team outside the P5, in order to get a major bowl, also had to be ranked in the top 15...yes/no?

 

[CTMike]

Why would we go for 11-1 and not 12-0?

Why stop there? I'm pretty sure @UConnDan97 would say we are going 13-0.

 

[gioff23]

How about we get bowl eligible and then we can worry about which one? Just a thought .....

 

[jackl]

As long as we instill that winning mentality/attitude, the wins will come.. The last coaching staff as constructed (pre-TJ Weist as interim HC) was a glass half empty type it seemed. Diaco definitely gives us hope that we'll be way better. I see us surprising folks with an 8 win (regular) season and we get our juices flowing to continue to do better than that going fwd... We win the games we are 'supposed to' win...

Speaking of FIHC TJ Weist, has he landed anywhere? Just curious.

 

[UConnDan97]

Why stop there? I'm pretty sure @UConnDan97 would say we are going 13-0.

Not only would I say it, but I am already on record as having said it! There are four things you can bank on in this life: Death, Taxes, UConn winning National Championships, and UConnDan97 predicting an undefeated season.

Bank on it!!!

 

[whaler11]

Seriously they open with BYU and people are debating 11-1 versus 10-2?

How about start by beating BYU...

Last years predictions didn't get past the first half against Towson.

 

[UConnDan97]

Seriously they open with BYU and people are debating 11-1 versus 10-2?

How about start by beating BYU...

Last years predictions didn't get past the first half against Towson.

Wrong!!!

Last year's predictions didn't get past the end of the second half against Towson...

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

Last year's predictions were doomed at the Spring game.

 

[whaler11]

Wrong!!!

Last year's predictions didn't get past the end of the second half against Towson...

Only if you were crazy enough to hold on to the dream after watching the first half.

 

[UConnDan97]

Only if you were crazy enough to hold on to the dream after watching the first half.

Are you trying to say that I'm not crazy enough? Take that back right now!

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I know Dan has fun with the 13-0 thing but is there anyone on this board who really thinks 11-1 is a remote possibility?

 

[RedSoloCup]

I know Dan has fun with the 13-0 thing but is there anyone on this board who really thinks 11-1 is a remote possibility?

Define "remote".... Lol

Probably not gonna happen, we have so me many parts that have to be brought in. The realist in me says that we have a unified, string team at the end of the year... But they are going to fight adversity as well.

 

[Gregory Koch]

Louisville is gone. Rutgers is gone. We have UCF at home and they won't have Blake Bortles. Garrett Gilbert is gone from SMU, and we get the Mustangs at home. We play Cincy at home. We don't play Houston. We could conceivably go 8-0 in the AAC. We almost beat Michigan at home, and they're better than UCF will be next year. And we'll be much improved as well. Don't underestimate our home field advantage. If we split with BYU and Boise State, then defeat Stony Brook at home and Army at a neutral site (which we should) that gets us to 11-1.

We went 3-5 in conference last year, and I think this year's team (and the coaching staff) is better than last year's. No doubt about that. Every other team in the AAC who went 3-5 or better either plays us at the Rent, has left the conference, or in the case of Houston, doesn't play us. If not for the fact that we have UCF, Cincy, and SMU at home and don't play Houston, I'd say there is no chance we go 8-0 in conference. But the schedule lines up for us - we have the toughest teams at home, except for Houston who we don't play. Reminds me of 2010 - we were definitely helped by playing Pitt AND West Virginia at home. We have a big home field advantage. Last year's team almost beat Michigan at home and held Louisville's prolific offense to two touchdowns. If not for the touchdown off the blocked punt and the pick six, that could have been a close game as well. And as I said, this team will be much better than last year's. UCF and SMU will be worse, having lost their star quarterbacks.

As for the BCS spot, I do think an undefeated MAC or MWC team would get through ahead of us if we're 11-1, if only because the human polls count and voters love undefeated teams. And I don't think there's any chance of us getting an at-large bid since we don't have the SOS. The only way I see it happening is if both us and another G5 school go undefeated, and they get the automatic berth, but I doubt we'll have two unbeaten G5 schools. Besides, if both us and another G5 school go undefeated, I think we would get the automatic berth by having a higher SOS (and because voters perceive the AAC as better than the MAC or MWC.)

 

[SubbaBub]

Just like last year, every game on the schedule is winnable. Meaning there is no one so much more talented that winning is unlikely. It's all on us as to how well we play.

 

[whaler11]

Just like last year, every game on the schedule is winnable. Meaning there is no one so much more talented that winning is unlikely. It's all on us as to how well we play.

Yeah no offense but last year there were unwinnable games. Central Florida and Louisville were better up and down the roster, weren't coached by invalids and completely drubbed UConn.

I don't know how many times out a hundred UConn would have beaten UCF but I know Bob Wickman has more fingers on his off hand than you need to count it.

You can make the case it comes down to 'how you play', but by that standard every game for every team in the world is winnable. John Daly can win the US Open he just has to play well.

 

[Sportsman5]

I know Dan has fun with the 13-0 thing but is there anyone on this board who really thinks 11-1 is a remote possibility?

If Cochran plays like he did at the end of the season and we get a little luck, than 11-1 is a possibility. If we have a prolific passing attack, than half the teams on the schedule won't have much of a chance of beating us. All home game are very winnable.

 

[whaler11]

Just like last year, every game on the schedule is winnable. Meaning there is no one so much more talented that winning is unlikely. It's all on us as to how well we play.

UConn trailed UCF 55-10 at the end of the third quarter. They got outgained 527-233, which is better on paper than it was in reality, and UCF went 8-13 on third down conversions...

but jeeze if they just played a little better... that one could have been a win.

UCF won a BCS game. UConn got blown out by Towson, Maryland, Buffalo,Louisville, SMU, UCF and Cincinnati.

2013 UConn/Cincinnati might be the least memorable game in program history. UConn lost by 25, I watched the game and literally don't remember a single thing about it.

 

[whaler11]

If Cochran plays like he did at the end of the season and we get a little luck, than 11-1 is a possibility. If we have a prolific passing attack, than half the teams on the schedule won't have much of a chance of beating us. All home game are very winnable.

UConn plays BYU, Boise, UCF and Cincinnati at home. Those are maybe each winnable in a vaccum on their own.

Even being wildly optimistic... they beat BYU 33% of the time, Boise half, Cinci half and UCF 20% of the time - each of which is wildly generous: your chance of winning all four is 1 in 60.

The chance that UConn goes 11-1 or better is probably in the neighborhood of 2000:1.

 

[Sportsman5]

UConn plays BYU, Boise, UCF and Cincinnati at home. Those are maybe each winnable in a vaccum on their own.

Even being wildly optimistic... they beat BYU 33% of the time, Boise half, Cinci half and UCF 20% of the time - each of which is wildly generous: your chance of winning all four is 1 in 60.

The chance that UConn goes 11-1 or better is probably in the neighborhood of 2000:1.

2000:1? that's a VERY large number.

there are several scenarios where we end up being an extremely competitive team.

One would be Cochran continues his great play from the end of last season and/ or someone like Newsome translates his success to the college level and is a big impact player to compliment the pass. Let's say there's a 30% chance Cochran plays a full season as good or better than he was at the end of last season and a 10% chance Newsome ends up being a freshman sensation. If both happen, than we would have an incredible offense and would be big favorites against almost everyone we face. Given that Newsome put up all-time record type numbers in high school there is a strong argument that Newsome has a greater than 10% chance at being an all conference type running back his freshman year. And to argue against Cochran you would have to assume that he regressed over the offseason. So lets say conservatively that there's a 3% chance both players both end up putting up all conference type numbers. So lets say 3% of the time we have a very dynamic running and pass game that together create a lethal offense. So to be 2000:1 that would mean if the season was played out 60 times with a lethal offense and a schedule of extremely winnable games apart from 2 or 3 that UConn would only win 11 or 12 games 1 season out of 60. That seems like a very low estimate to me.

 

[whaler11]

2000:1? that's a VERY large number.

there are several scenarios where we end up being an extremely competitive team.

One would be Cochran continues his great play from the end of last season and/ or someone like Newsome translates his success to the college level and is a big impact player to compliment the pass. Let's say there's a 30% chance Cochran plays a full season as good or better than he was at the end of last season and a 10% chance Newsome ends up being a freshman sensation. If both happen, than we would have an incredible offense and would be big favorites against almost everyone we face. Given that Newsome put up all-time record type numbers in high school there is a strong argument that Newsome has a greater than 10% chance at being an all conference type running back his freshman year. And to argue against Cochran you would have to assume that he regressed over the offseason. So lets say conservatively that there's a 3% chance both players both end up putting up all conference type numbers. So lets say 3% of the time we have a very dynamic running and pass game that together create a lethal offense. So to be 2000:1 that would mean if the season was played out 60 times with a lethal offense and a schedule of extremely winnable games apart from 2 or 3 that UConn would only win 11 or 12 games 1 season out of 60. That seems like a very low estimate to me.

Well if you are confident how about we do this:

I'll give Bizlaw or Dan97 $1000.
You give Bizlaw or Dan97 $100.

If UConn goes 11-1 in the regular season you take my $1k.

If UConn is worse than 11-1 I'll take my 1k back and donate your $100 to the charity of their choice.


If you'd like to make a different financial wager on UConn going 11-1 next year please communicate your terms and I imagige I'll meet them.