Do People Realize How Soft This Bubble Is?

Bubble teams who won tonight (and are probably no longer on the bubble):
1) Seton Hall
2) Kansas State

Bubble teams who lost tonight:
1) Xavier
2) Miami
3) Illinois
4) NC State
5) Northwestern
6) Mississippi State

Colorado State is still TBD.

Joe Lunardi has Central Florida in the dance as of right now and South Florida, who's best win is Seton Hall at home, as the first team out.

Pretty soon, Providence and DePaul will be getting write-ups in Bubble Watch.

It's weak as hell, Seton Hall and us are easily in at this point but you still have to take care of business. I want this game on saturday so freaking badly.

Colorado State beat a ranked New Mexico team so that should help them a lot

I feel like every year people say "the bubble is soft, this is a down year". You know what? I think any bubble that expands 68 teams wide is going to have some pretty weak teams in it. This should come as a surprise to nobody.

And no way is K-State on the bubble. They have wins this year @Baylor, vs. Missouri, and @ Missouri.

How is SF out with their BE record?

They havent beat anyone good but if they go 2-2 against Syracuse WVU Cincy and Louisville(remaining games) they'll be in but i dont see it

Yes... the expansion from 64 to 65 was driven (IIRC) by the major conferences not wanting to lose a team to the autobid when the WAC split in 2 conferences (or was it another midmajor split?) The push to 68 likewise wasn't to get more teams from midmajors in, I think it was to get more major conference bubble teams in. Once we have a few more years of track record in the 68 team era it'll be interesting to see who's last in / first out over the years...

68, and the non-parallel structure of the "first four," is nothing more than a political compromise between the major conferences and the small conferences. If you try to find a common sense reason for it, you are just wasting your time.

Wouldn't a soft bubble indicate it can burst easily?

The BE is very very down this year and despite that guaddy record their best W is Seton Hall.

Their non conference was pitiful, they lost to Auburn, VCU, Old Dominion, Southern Miss and Penn State.

Bama went 12-4 last year in the SEC and did not make the tourney because of a similar non-conference performance.

I honestly don't see how USF gets in without adding a win over Cuse or Lville or getting some decent wins in the BE Tourney.

Because conference record is not considered by the Committee. Each team is evaluated as an independent.

Syracuse went 10-6 and 22-10 overall in 2006-2007 and didn't make the tournament (which I still think is absurd).

Then, you have Colorado St. this year who are on the bubble: 17-9 overall, 6-5 in conference. They have two wins over top 25 teams (SDSU and New Mexico) and are getting credit for losing to Duke and Southern Miss.

I don't agree with the logic on either of these.

I think a winning record in the bigeast should be an automatic for a tourney birth.

Yep, it means things can change either way in a hurry. Right now we're 24th in RPI, but we'll need to finish strong to lock up a bid. Very doable despite all our struggles so far.

Only problem with this is the unbalanced schedule. The 3 teams Uconn played twice this year are all going to the tournament, while USF got to play an NIT team (Pitt) and 2 teams that won't see any postseason (Nova and PC).