Clarifying Big 12 Expansion Rumors: From Darren McFarland ESPN Radio in Nashville

[Adios]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...2/07/uc-big-12-speculation-heats-up/20054963/

Those schools could include UC, Memphis and UCF of the American Athletic Conference. BYU, Boise State, Marshall and Colorado State also have been mentioned, among others.

 

[NEforceUConn]

The only FB board or local paper I want to have a link to concerning CR is that of the Longhorns.

 

[upstater]

its pretty obvious they will take 2 aac teams and leave us in a even worse situation then we are now. This could be the end of Uconn football. I don't see how you can stay in a conference worse then the one we have now.....

It's easier to win at football the more teams leave.

 

[upstater]

The only FB board or local paper I want to have a link to concerning CR is that of the Longhorns.

Oh, it's heating up. The Longhorns may have to battle some indignation from Texas politicos affiliated with Baylor and TCU. Don't forget that Rick Perry and his A&M cohort just replaced the top honchos at UT. They are beholden to Texas politics, and right now, Baylor and TCU are hurting.

 

[Brochacho]

Offer the BXII games in NYC, free dairy bar ice cream, whatever it takes.

 

[junglehusky]

The FrankTheTank analysis cited on the TCU board is idiotic. He has UConn low because he rates us 0 for "Demographics/Recruiting Value" while most schools get 15-20 on that (Temple and Tulane are 15, USF, UCF, San Diego State and Cincy are 20). With that category removed we'd be 3rd. Yet the schools ahead of us share small demographics with a host of powerful football recruiting brands. We are one of only 3 high-level athletics programs in a 7-state region of 35 million people. If it historically has not produced a lot of DI football athletes, that's partly because of the dearth of local football colleges. There are plenty of athletes. To give a huge advantage to the likes of Tulane (competing with the likes of LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Miss State in a state of 4.6 million people) over UConn in a category called "Demographics/Recruiting" is absurd.

The other factor he dings us on is football brand value, BYU and Cincy are 15 points ahead. But Cincy was not considered a big football brand until its recent winning run. It shows the importance of recent football success.

No, I think his analysis is probably pretty accurate. UConn's potential value to the ACC is a lot higher than it is to the BXII because those conferences have different priorities, ACC schools would put a higher number on UConn's academics and CT's demographics. Consider our AAC mates and whether there is much overlap in student/alumni bases between UConn and say, SMU or Houston. If you went to high school in CT, do you know anyone who applied or went to SMU? Probably not. Do you know anyone who applied or went to UVA? You probably do. UConn just wouldn't fit in the BXII culturally. Geography and football recruiting are a higher priority to the BXII, which doesn't sponsor as many olympic sports by the way. Academics, research, basketball and Olympic sports are higher priority for ACC and B1g.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

No, I think his analysis is probably pretty accurate. UConn's potential value to the ACC is a lot higher than it is to the BXII because those conferences have different priorities, ACC schools would put a higher number on UConn's academics and CT's demographics. Consider our AAC mates and whether there is much overlap in student/alumni bases between UConn and say, SMU or Houston. If you went to high school in CT, do you know anyone who applied or went to SMU? Probably not. Do you know anyone who applied or went to UVA? You probably do. UConn just wouldn't fit in the BXII culturally. Geography and football recruiting are a higher priority to the BXII, which doesn't sponsor as many olympic sports by the way. Academics, research, basketball and Olympic sports are higher priority for ACC and B1g.

He is right, the B12 values BB on the whole the least out of all of the P5 conferences. Outside of Kansas, BB is a VERY distant second at the other nine schools. It's also smack dab in a region of the country that REALLY doesn't care that much about CBB. That plus how far away we are makes it a long haul. Still, Warde needs to be on the phone with them 24/7 looking for a lifeline.

Also, it appears Frank wrote that article a year ago, so pre-national titles. Who knows how that, plus another abhorrent football season would change his evaluation.

 

[Hoophound]

Our big benefit is a presence in the most populated and wealthy region in the country, a blue blood basketball program and a very well supported state flagship university in a medium/large local market that we dominate. I just can't see how that doesn't make sense compared to all the other options except BYU, which brings great value as well. This is a long term investment, they aren't day trading here. This is a job that an AD like Jurich or Luck could get done for us. We have a great pitch if done properly.

Texas should want nothing more than to come play us in NY each year and that would help us grow our fan base in NY exponentially. We can also offer to somehow pull our own weight compared to other programs by working with SNY to give us more revenue for an improved product. I think the B12 allows for schools to collect on their own tier 2 and 3 rights. Since ours are worth more than the other schools', that should allow us to be more compelling financially because we can make greater concessions. There is so much to work with to help us make a good pitch that others can't offer. We need to figure it out and present it ASAP.

 

[junglehusky]

Texas should want nothing more than to come play us in NY each year and that would help us grow our fan base in NY exponentially. We can also offer to somehow pull our own weight compared to other programs by working with SNY to give us more revenue for an improved product. I think the B12 allows for schools to collect on their own tier 2 and 3 rights. Since ours are worth more than the other schools', that should allow us to be more compelling financially because we can make greater concessions. There is so much to work with to help us make a good pitch that others can't offer. We need to figure it out and present it ASAP.

So basically, our argument is Texas would help us become better at football (sounds like something Diaco would say), and we'd be willing to give up more (financially I assume? higher entrance fees?)... That's just not very compelling. We need to demonstrate competence in football, if not 9-10 wins in the weak league we're in before we can expect their presidents to pick up the phone.

Yes Florida has rich recruiting grounds but I don't see how a conference wants to expand with the short, medium, and long term fact that UCF and USF will always be the 4th or 5th team in that State. Memphis is a joke, nice crowd showed up to watch their last game - they did need a win for the CC tie. Now memphis can play the coaching roulet wheel. BYU is BYU and I hope the Texas Methodist crowd continue to object. UConn is a long way from Texas/Oklahoma but games in NYC should entice.

They would entice for leagues that have alumni in and around NYC. We know that's true for B1G and ACC, I don't know the numbers but I imagine the BXII has fewer alumni in the Northeast.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So jungle doesnt want us to drop football or find a long term sustainable conference situation outside the P5, but he also thinks we have no chance of getting into a P5 league.

 

[junglehusky]

So jungle doesnt want us to drop football or find a long term sustainable conference situation outside the P5, but he also thinks we have no chance of getting into a P5 league.

I didn't say that. I'm saying we have a negligible shot at getting into the BXII.

Put it this way - UConn's best shot to get into the BXII would be if they go all-in for the East, go to 16 by adding Cincy, UConn, Temple, East Carolina, USF, UCF. If Herbst and Manuel are supposed to save our asses then they should be on the phone with those AAC schools trying to present a united front and figure out a way to make it profitable to the BXII to basically destroy their identity. And somehow convince them it's good for their football perception to expand that way, which it won't be.

If they do that, they are basically conspiring to destroy the AAC which will probably open them to lawsuits, so the decision is then weighing the chances of the Hail Mary, let's say 1%, versus trying to get in the BXII as a single entity, which is lower than that, versus surviving for 5-10 years and taking that time to build a case for ACC/B1G entry, which will still be a small chance of success but a) higher than the Hail Mary b) will go up slightly over time as contracts are renegotiated, and c) could go up a lot more if the football program is turned around.

If it's 2024 and the P5 stand pat or take other AAC schools and UConn's athletic department is broke and losing, then you'll be able to make a better case for dropping football and the yard will be able to tell you you were right, if they haven't all thrown themselves off of East Rock park or the Heublein tower.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I didn't say that. I'm saying we have a negligible shot at getting into the BXII.

Put it this way - UConn's best shot to get into the BXII would be if they go all-in for the East, go to 16 by adding Cincy, UConn, Temple, East Carolina, USF, UCF. If Herbst and Manuel are supposed to save our asses then they should be on the phone with those AAC schools trying to present a united front and figure out a way to make it profitable to the BXII to basically destroy their identity. And somehow convince them it's good for their football perception to expand that way, which it won't be.

If they do that, they are basically conspiring to destroy the AAC which will probably open them to lawsuits, so the decision is then weighing the chances of the Hail Mary, let's say 1%, versus trying to get in the BXII as a single entity, which is lower than that, versus surviving for 5-10 years and taking that time to build a case for ACC/B1G entry, which will still be a small chance of success but a) higher than the Hail Mary b) will go up slightly over time as contracts are renegotiated, and c) could go up a lot more if the football program is turned around.

If it's 2024 and the P5 stand pat or take other AAC schools and UConn's athletic department is broke and losing, then you'll be able to make a better case for dropping football and the yard will be able to tell you you were right, if they haven't all thrown themselves off of East Rock park or the Heublein tower.

We won't make it to 2024 with $15MM+ a year of school subsidies for the athletic program.

As for the Big 12, there are 3 good candidates then a big drop off. BYU, UConn and Cincinnati are all reasonable additions for market, athletic budget support, academics, and historical on the field/court performance. The Florida schools are commuter schools in a crowded market, and Memphis has been a dumpster fire in football for years while basketball's success has been sporadic and typically revoked. I can't really make a good argument for UConn over either BYU or Cincinnati, so it comes down to a) the Big 12 decides to expand, and b) whether BYU wants to join.

I suspect that the networks will increase the TV deal if there is more content from any combination of BYU, UConn and Cincinnati, so I don't think money is the issue. I think Texas vetoed expansion last time because they wanted control of the league, and that was easier with 10 members. I think they don't want another Nebraska in the league that will be fighting with them all the time, and BYU could be that program. I think the league also thought that a 9 team conference schedule was a good idea, and I think the consensus on that plan is fading rapidly. I don't know if this even was enough to overcome Texas' veto, but I do think the rest of the league would expand tomorrow if Texas would let it.

 

[CL82]

I suspect that the networks will increase the TV deal if there is more content from any combination of BYU, UConn and Cincinnati, so I don't think money is the issue.

Undoubtedly they would, and that may be our biggest strenght. The argument in our favor would be Big 12 needs two more teams for a CCG but two more teams would dilute the payout each school is currently getting. If Fox wants to get into CT, NYC, and New England, than they might be willing to pay more for UConn than any other partner. So you add one football school, Cinci with good prospects and good recruiting and you add UConn if Fox is willing to pay for it. They have to pony up an additional $46 million (current pay out of $23M per school x 2 more schools) to prevent dilution of current earnings but less might be okay so long as UConn being in the mix got them the best revised deal.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I didn't say that. I'm saying we have a negligible shot at getting into the BXII.

Put it this way - UConn's best shot to get into the BXII would be if they go all-in for the East, go to 16 by adding Cincy, UConn, Temple, East Carolina, USF, UCF. If Herbst and Manuel are supposed to save our asses then they should be on the phone with those AAC schools trying to present a united front and figure out a way to make it profitable to the BXII to basically destroy their identity. And somehow convince them it's good for their football perception to expand that way, which it won't be.

If they do that, they are basically conspiring to destroy the AAC which will probably open them to lawsuits, so the decision is then weighing the chances of the Hail Mary, let's say 1%, versus trying to get in the BXII as a single entity, which is lower than that, versus surviving for 5-10 years and taking that time to build a case for ACC/B1G entry, which will still be a small chance of success but a) higher than the Hail Mary b) will go up slightly over time as contracts are renegotiated, and c) could go up a lot more if the football program is turned around.

If it's 2024 and the P5 stand pat or take other AAC schools and UConn's athletic department is broke and losing, then you'll be able to make a better case for dropping football and the yard will be able to tell you you were right, if they haven't all thrown themselves off of East Rock park or the Heublein tower.

I love this bold thinking! This calls on the B12 to lead rather than follow. I would much prefer that UConn be associated with a conference determined to have a place of honor at the table than one content circling its legs like an annoying, yapping dog with its ribs showing. And to those who evaluate expansion through the lens of immediate maintenance of current revenue streams, screw that. Name me a serious business person who embarks on a substantive enterprise that opens its doors at 9:00 and wants to know how much profit they've made at 9:01. I've worked for a company that has made literally hundreds of acquisitions and the CEO has stated that exactly ONE has contributed positively to earnings-per-share in the first quarter after being acquired.

I look at those six B12 additions you propose. I wonder which might sink the conference. Risk inheres with change but it also inheres with doing nothing. Right now, the B12 is flirting with in-viability, something they've already experienced with the departures of Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri. They've tried papering over the holes and they're the worse for it. Time for a change in strategy.

As someone said before last year's women's basketball championship (I paraphrase), "Breanna Stewart is the most valuable chess piece on the board and when you give Geno Auriemma that piece he usually wins." The University of Texas is the most valuable chess piece in college sports. I like our chances associating with Texas.

 

[ZooCougar]

If I am the Big 12, I just figure out how to stand pat and still stage a championship game.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If I am the Big 12, I just figure out how to stand pat and still stage a championship game.

They have already asked, and per several sources, the Pac 12, SEC and Big 10 said NFW. The ACC seemed to support it for some reason.

 

[HuskyHawk]

He is right, the B12 values BB on the whole the least out of all of the P5 conferences. Outside of Kansas, BB is a VERY distant second at the other nine schools. It's also smack dab in a region of the country that REALLY doesn't care that much about CBB. That plus how far away we are makes it a long haul. Still, Warde needs to be on the phone with them 24/7 looking for a lifeline.

Also, it appears Frank wrote that article a year ago, so pre-national titles. Who knows how that, plus another abhorrent football season would change his evaluation.

This is pretty wrong. CBB is huge in that part of the country (much more so than say, the west coast or south). It's bigger than football at Iowa State and at least equal at Oklahoma State. UT and OU have long had strong hoops programs. The Big XII has five teams in the top 25. That's in a 10 team league. OK State and Baylor are receiving votes. Then add Wichita State as reflective of CBB in the region. Basketball is big. Not as big as football, but certainly not an afterthought as it is in the SEC outside of KY.