Candid Coaches: Will Power 5 in college hoops leave the NCAA?

[pj]

I don't have the link handy, but I think everyone saying the Cinderellas are what make March madness " special" are correct, however, the big name schools still drive the ratings and not the feel good stories. It is what it is.

Just for example. Say the tournament's value (using arbritrary and overly crude numbers) is cut in half:

1B / 300 teams = 3.33M per team

500M / 65 teams = 7.65M per team

Would it ruin the allure of the tournament. Yes.

Would it long term be a poor decision? Probably.

In the short term does it make the Resource 5 richer? Yes.

NCAA tourney money is not distributed equally to each team, rather conferences earn credits based on games played in the tourney.

From http://www.businessinsider.com/conference-payouts-ncaa-tournament-2011-4, the major conferences have typically received 63% of the payout.

That's probably a good representation of what the P5 would get going forward. So if separating cut revenue in half, they'd lose money.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If the P5 breakaway and are only playing themselves, first, the tourney games will duplicate a lot of regular season games. It will look a lot like a Big Ten - ACC challenge, only at the end of the season. Second, it will be a smaller shorter tourney. With only 65 schools, half with losing records, it will be hard to select more than 16 or maybe 24 schools. That's a 2 week tourney and interest will be limited to 16-24 fanbases. Moreover the same teams will be in every year, so it will get repetitive.

Meanwhile there will be a separate tourney for the non-P5, and so we'l have two champions. This will create demand for a super-championship between the divisional champions.

What would create more interest is if at some point you merge the tourneys -- the P5 Final Four and the non-P5 Final Four get matched for an 8-team tourney. But then the P5 would have to share the money.

I don't know that it would generate much more money for the P5. Maybe, but the NCAA tourney credits are already distributed largely to the P5. And since the P5 have the big network contracts, they will have a big lead in exposure and that will give them a bigger advantage in recruiting. I think they might find they're getting all the money there is to be had with the current basketball structure.

Your last point is true . The P5 is the beneficiary of the NCAA BB tourney.

 

[rman726]

I think this is the most telling and true statement made: “I believe that power conferences will break away, and no one without football will be able to compete with what they are providing their student athletes, they will need 20 basketball schools to have a tournament, so WCC, A10, Big East will survive and be included. Only three or four sports will survive. Football, men's basketball, women's basketball, and maybe volleyball. Everyone else will disappear.”

Honestly, I think most schools, many even within the Power 5, are in for a very rude awakening. Schools like Syracuse and Duke which laugh at our misfortunes are going to be in for an extremely rude awakening when they realize that they can't pull in the same amount of money as the real football schools do and are screwed as a result. I mean seriously. Look at schools like Texas, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. Those schools make 9 figures from football. NINE. And that's with conference revenue sharing. Imagine how much they actually would bring in without all the giving to the poor.

It will start as the Power 5 breaking off. And then it will turn into the top football programs deciding that they are still getting in the ass by schools like Vanderbilt, Indiana, Syracuse, Duke, etc., etc. who just don't bring in the money that they do.

 

[pj]

I think this is the most telling and true statement made: “I believe that power conferences will break away, and no one without football will be able to compete with what they are providing their student athletes, they will need 20 basketball schools to have a tournament, so WCC, A10, Big East will survive and be included. Only three or four sports will survive. Football, men's basketball, women's basketball, and maybe volleyball. Everyone else will disappear.”

Honestly, I think most schools, many even within the Power 5, are in for a very rude awakening. Schools like Syracuse and Duke which laugh at our misfortunes are going to be in for an extremely rude awakening when they realize that they can't pull in the same amount of money as the real football schools do and are screwed as a result. I mean seriously. Look at schools like Texas, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. Those schools make 9 figures from football. NINE. And that's with conference revenue sharing. Imagine how much they actually would bring in without all the giving to the poor.

It will start as the Power 5 breaking off. And then it will turn into the top football programs deciding that they are still getting in the ass by schools like Vanderbilt, Indiana, Syracuse, Duke, etc., etc. who just don't bring in the money that they do.

After basketball revenue plummets with the P5 break up, the power football programs will think twice about kicking to the curb the weaker members of the P5. They'll remember that they need opponents with a chance of winning on their schedule to keep the fan interest up and the money coming in.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I think this is the most telling and true statement made: “I believe that power conferences will break away, and no one without football will be able to compete with what they are providing their student athletes, they will need 20 basketball schools to have a tournament, so WCC, A10, Big East will survive and be included. Only three or four sports will survive. Football, men's basketball, women's basketball, and maybe volleyball. Everyone else will disappear.”

Honestly, I think most schools, many even within the Power 5, are in for a very rude awakening. Schools like Syracuse and Duke which laugh at our misfortunes are going to be in for an extremely rude awakening when they realize that they can't pull in the same amount of money as the real football schools do and are screwed as a result. I mean seriously. Look at schools like Texas, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. Those schools make 9 figures from football. NINE. And that's with conference revenue sharing. Imagine how much they actually would bring in without all the giving to the poor.

It will start as the Power 5 breaking off. And then it will turn into the top football programs deciding that they are still getting in the ass by schools like Vanderbilt, Indiana, Syracuse, Duke, etc., etc. who just don't bring in the money that they do.

As long as the 'major' college programs stay nominally attached to academic institutions, many of whom receive tens and even hundreds of millions of dollars in federal grants each year, they will face major hurdles in downsizing their athletic slate due to Title IX, which is the law of the land regardless if they are inside or outside of the NCAA.

 

[frankthetank]

The P5 absolutely believe that the entire rest of the NCAA is making money off of their backs for basketball. Remember that the NCAA Tournament isn't just distributing money to other Division I conferences - it literally pays for all of the NCAA for every sport at every level. The NCAA takes a HUGE cut off the top and, believe me, it irks the P5 leaders to no end that this occurs.

The problem with some of the money comparisons that I see is that they're relying upon total dollars (i.e. the CBS/Turner contract is worth $1 billion). As we have seen in college football, TOTAL dollars are irrelevant. What matters is the money SPLIT. The P5 taking 100% of significantly lower total amount for a P5-only basketball tournament could very easily exceed what they're currently taking back from the current NCAA Tournament contract (even if that total amount might be higher).

Here's the irony: if you're a UConn fan that wants to get into a P5 conference, you WANT this to happen. The biggest reason why exponentially much more emphasis is placed upon football instead of basketball in conference realignment (even with the advent of conference networks where they need programming) is that the P5 effectively have 100% control over football, but give up everything to the NCAA for basketball. If the P5 get to take home the same type of 80-90% share of basketball revenue in the manner that they get for football, then a school like UConn becomes much more valuable in the marketplace.

Now, the thing is that inertia is still strong in college sports. The P5 leaders aren't completely blind - they can hammer through changes in college football because the general public really attaches little value to Cinderella in that sport. G5 fans might care about access in football, but Joe Blow Sports Fan would be perfectly happy with an Alabama/Florida/Ohio State/Michigan/Texas/USC/Notre Dame/etc. rotation in the national championship every year. Basketball is a little bit of a different animal in that actually destroying a very popular event (the NCAA Tournament) is something that most P5 leaders understand is untenable (even if they REALLY think that the money distribution should match that of football).

To be sure, though, the Dukes, UNCs and Kentuckys of the world still drive much of the money in basketball. Make no mistake that the "Goliaths" are making the revenue as opposed to the "Davids". Even though people have a lot of interest in "David vs. Goliath" in the first round, they actually love "Goliath vs. Goliath" matchups in the later rounds and Final Four (as ratings show the interest in Cinderellas generally go down past the first round). "David vs. David" matchups, on the other hand, are worthless for TV (and that's where the P5 have leverage if they ultimately want changes for basketball).

 

[UConnTrumbull]

If the P5 broke away and March Madness only included P5 teams, no one would watch. Period. I'm pretty sure the P5 knows that too. They can get away with it in football, not basketball.

 

[The Funster]

A quick look came up with this blog and BYU study from the embedded link:

http://johnclay.bloginky.com/2013/08/09/tv-ratings-ncaa-tournament-and-cinderellas/

I guess there might be studies showing the exact opposite but I'm not sure how. Personally, the fact that the NCAA tournament pays for virtually all of the NCAA is OK by me. It's a grand tournament and the proceeds do a lot of good for a lot of student athletes and the institutions that give them opportunities to play sports at a higher level. I think it is a shame that more and more schools are dropping athletic teams because they don't have enough money to fund them when 65+ schools want even more money because they are in a position to force it.

Here's the reality, IMO: if the NCAA and some of it's constituent schools hadn't been so greedy and tried to profit even more off its student athletes by selling their likenesses for video games, if they hadn't skirted/evaded/massaged existing rules to get more for less from their student athletes and if they hadn't been so obvious in their money grabs they wouldn't be in this position.

It just seems disingenuous for the these schools to now be claiming that they want to be able to adequately compensate their student athletes when they were also trying to run a small segment of college athletics like a big business.

 

[UConnDan97]

A quick look came up with this blog and BYU study from the embedded link:

http://johnclay.bloginky.com/2013/08/09/tv-ratings-ncaa-tournament-and-cinderellas/

I guess there might be studies showing the exact opposite but I'm not sure how. Personally, the fact that the NCAA tournament pays for virtually all of the NCAA is OK by me. It's a grand tournament and the proceeds do a lot of good for a lot of student athletes and the institutions that give them opportunities to play sports at a higher level. I think it is a shame that more and more schools are dropping athletic teams because they don't have enough money to fund them when 65+ schools want even more money because they are in a position to force it.

Here's the reality, IMO: if the NCAA and some of it's constituent schools hadn't been so greedy and tried to profit even more off its student athletes by selling their likenesses for video games, if they hadn't skirted/evaded/massaged existing rules to get more for less from their student athletes and if they hadn't been so obvious in their money grabs they wouldn't be in this position.

It just seems disingenuous for the these schools to now be claiming that they want to be able to adequately compensate their student athletes when they were also trying to run a small segment of college athletics like a big business.

Good link. And since it supports what I've said, I'm going to say that it is absolutely true and a must-read for everyone on the board...

 

[upstater]

The P5 absolutely believe that the entire rest of the NCAA is making money off of their backs for basketball. Remember that the NCAA Tournament isn't just distributing money to other Division I conferences - it literally pays for all of the NCAA for every sport at every level. The NCAA takes a HUGE cut off the top and, believe me, it irks the P5 leaders to no end that this occurs.

The problem with some of the money comparisons that I see is that they're relying upon total dollars (i.e. the CBS/Turner contract is worth $1 billion). As we have seen in college football, TOTAL dollars are irrelevant. What matters is the money SPLIT. The P5 taking 100% of significantly lower total amount for a P5-only basketball tournament could very easily exceed what they're currently taking back from the current NCAA Tournament contract (even if that total amount might be higher).

Here's the irony: if you're a UConn fan that wants to get into a P5 conference, you WANT this to happen. The biggest reason why exponentially much more emphasis is placed upon football instead of basketball in conference realignment (even with the advent of conference networks where they need programming) is that the P5 effectively have 100% control over football, but give up everything to the NCAA for basketball. If the P5 get to take home the same type of 80-90% share of basketball revenue in the manner that they get for football, then a school like UConn becomes much more valuable in the marketplace.

Now, the thing is that inertia is still strong in college sports. The P5 leaders aren't completely blind - they can hammer through changes in college football because the general public really attaches little value to Cinderella in that sport. G5 fans might care about access in football, but Joe Blow Sports Fan would be perfectly happy with an Alabama/Florida/Ohio State/Michigan/Texas/USC/Notre Dame/etc. rotation in the national championship every year. Basketball is a little bit of a different animal in that actually destroying a very popular event (the NCAA Tournament) is something that most P5 leaders understand is untenable (even if they REALLY think that the money distribution should match that of football).

To be sure, though, the Dukes, UNCs and Kentuckys of the world still drive much of the money in basketball. Make no mistake that the "Goliaths" are making the revenue as opposed to the "Davids". Even though people have a lot of interest in "David vs. Goliath" in the first round, they actually love "Goliath vs. Goliath" matchups in the later rounds and Final Four (as ratings show the interest in Cinderellas generally go down past the first round). "David vs. David" matchups, on the other hand, are worthless for TV (and that's where the P5 have leverage if they ultimately want changes for basketball).

So who would host and run all the championships in all other sports if not the NCAA? Who would enforce the rules? That costs money. Say the NCAA tourney would only be worth half (I'd bet less) than it is now. You still have the regulation enforcement needs and you have championships to stage, including men's and women's bball.

 

[upstater]

NCAA tourney money is not distributed equally to each team, rather conferences earn credits based on games played in the tourney.

From http://www.businessinsider.com/conference-payouts-ncaa-tournament-2011-4, the major conferences have typically received 63% of the payout.

That's probably a good representation of what the P5 would get going forward. So if separating cut revenue in half, they'd lose money.

You also need to cut that $500m in half again if you're going to have the same level of rules enforcement and if you're going to stage championships for other sports. The NCAA takes roughly half for those purposes.

So, if the P5 make $315m now (63% of $500m), then a contract of $500m a year might net them only $250m unless they do away with rules enforcement, governance and expenditures for hosting championships. Say they manage $100m in streamlining sport and enforcement expenditures. That brings them to $350m, or $500k per school more than they make now.

Hardly seems worth it.

 

[Fairfield 1st]

Here's the thing... what would a P5 break in hoops mean for the conference tournaments? Are we going to binge on ACC and Big10 hoop tournaments only for a week later to see the same schools match up in a select tournament amongst themselves. Such a move I think would devalue the conference tournaments substantially-no one is going to spend their March weekends getting gigged up for North Carolina State v. Purdue after having just watched each team play in their respective conference tournaments...

 

[Fairfield 1st]

The P5 absolutely believe that the entire rest of the NCAA is making money off of their backs for basketball. Remember that the NCAA Tournament isn't just distributing money to other Division I conferences - it literally pays for all of the NCAA for every sport at every level. The NCAA takes a HUGE cut off the top and, believe me, it irks the P5 leaders to no end that this occurs.]


But that belief is wholly irrational as the tournament's overall value isn't pegged by CBS and partners based on conference affiliation and number of participants from each conference. its an overall thing, driven by the scope and appeal the first two weeks have nationwide... they won't make nearly the same money in their own tourney

 

[frankthetank]

So who would host and run all the championships in all other sports if not the NCAA? Who would enforce the rules? That costs money. Say the NCAA tourney would only be worth half (I'd bet less) than it is now. You still have the regulation enforcement needs and you have championships to stage, including men's and women's bball.

Look - I'm not saying that the P5 breaking away from the NCAA Tournament is a good idea. Personally, I'd hate it.

However, I think you'll find quite a few P5 people that they believe that they'd garner a very large contract to more than compensate all of the administrative aspects of other sports and make a lot more money on a per conference basis while not having to deal with the rest of the NCAA. There is a big-time belief within the P5 that they are giving up too much basketball revenue compared to what they *believe* they're bringing to the table. BIG-TIME. It REALLY bothers them. Jim Delany has made comments about how basketball revenue isn't being maximized for them (and as much as he's supposedly Mike Slive's rival, they are largely one and the same when it comes to money issues)... and what he's talking about is that the NCAA Tournament is sucking it all up.

That doesn't mean that there's going to be an eminent change to the NCAA Tournament or that the P5 want to break off tomorrow. That being said, make no mistake about it - they will absolutely be looking for ways to make the basketball revenue into a 90/10 split in the way that football is now. You may not agree with it and I may not agree with it, but that IS how they are thinking. When the P5 have several years of autonomy under their belts, that's when you might start seeing some rumblings about NCAA Tournament changes (i.e. more guaranteed revenue for the P5 or else they'll walk). It won't be right away with autonomy being fresh, but a few years from now when several years of the CFP system will make the money gap between the P5 and rest of the NCAA blow away the already huge gap that you see today.

 

[frankthetank]

Here's the thing... what would a P5 break in hoops mean for the conference tournaments? Are we going to binge on ACC and Big10 hoop tournaments only for a week later to see the same schools match up in a select tournament amongst themselves. Such a move I think would devalue the conference tournaments substantially-no one is going to spend their March weekends getting gigged up for North Carolina State v. Purdue after having just watched each team play in their respective conference tournaments...

There are many arguments why a split of the NCAA Tournament would be a bad idea, but I don't quite understand this one. The current NCAA Tournament already makes the P5 conference tournaments superfluous. Some might have more tradition than others (particularly the ACC and Big East), but the sole reason why they exist these days is as money-makers for TV and ticket sales. I'd compare it to lower level bowl games - we can say all that "no one wants to watch 6-6 P5 teams play each other"... but then the ratings actually state that people DO want to watch them (at least compared to what other programming might be available during that time of year). The P5 conference tournaments are already largely irrelevant except for a handful of bubble teams or if some low seed gets hot and ends up taking the league's auto-bid at the expense of another bubble team, but plenty of people still watch them on TV and in person. A P5-only tournament wouldn't materially change that.

 

[pj]

There are many arguments why a split of the NCAA Tournament would be a bad idea, but I don't quite understand this one. The current NCAA Tournament already makes the P5 conference tournaments superfluous. Some might have more tradition than others (particularly the ACC and Big East), but the sole reason why they exist these days is as money-makers for TV and ticket sales. I'd compare it to lower level bowl games - we can say all that "no one wants to watch 6-6 P5 teams play each other"... but then the ratings actually state that people DO want to watch them (at least compared to what other programming might be available during that time of year). The P5 conference tournaments are already largely irrelevant except for a handful of bubble teams or if some low seed gets hot and ends up taking the league's auto-bid at the expense of another bubble team, but plenty of people still watch them on TV and in person. A P5-only tournament wouldn't materially change that.

You seem to be making an argument for why people will watch a non-P5 DI tourney running concurrently with the P5 tourney. That has to cut into TV revenues. It's not like the bowl games where they are designed not to overlap. Two tourneys at the same time almost have to overlap in basketball.

 

[amory]

I really don't see the P5 splitting from the NCAA tournament, but maybe I'm naive.

Cinderellas are a pretty big part of march madness. Get rid of them, and way fewer people are going to tune in for the opening rounds.