Candid Coaches: Will Power 5 in college hoops leave the NCAA?

[Lock City Husky]

UConn referenced by one coach and alluded to by another.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...r-conferences-in-college-hoops-leave-the-ncaa

 

[Husky25]

UConn referenced by one coach and alluded to by another.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...r-conferences-in-college-hoops-leave-the-ncaa

The one difference between the BCS (or precedents and those who followed) is that the NCAA Tournament is run by the NCAA. The New Years Six Bowls (playoff and the like) are not.

At least that is how I see it.

 

[Dooley]

I tried to make this case on the Hoops board not too long ago and was essentially laughed out of the room.

This is very real and I think it will be coming at some point in the next 10 years. The very fact that the Tournament is run by the NCAA (and therefore the NCAA profits from it) is the very reason a split will come. Autonomy hasn't happened because schools all of a sudden grew concerned about players' inability to have a midnight snack or health insurance. It's happened for money. Once all of these lawsuits are settled and final, the focus will go back to "how can we make more money?" The answer: split the P5 schools and maybe a few others to create a different, new tournament and farm it out to the highest TV bidder. When you stop to think about the MASSIVE markets and fan bases that fall inside the P5, the bids will be astronomical.

I just hope that UCONN has found a P5 home before this happens.

 

[Dooley]

Some interesting random and anonymous coach's quotes:

“I honestly don't see how the non-Big Five will coexist with the new structure. You're already labeling them below the power five now. Let's be honest, Connecticut, Cincinnati, etc. are scrambling to get out of their current conference for a reason. They have to see the writing on the wall. Recruiting high-major kids will be very difficult for those teams that remain outside of power five.”

"Every decision the schools make is made with money in mind. So if they decide they can make more money by breaking away, they'll breakaway. And they can probably make more money by breaking away."

 

[Husky25]

I beauty of the Tournament is that people do tune in for the Mercers and Daytons of the NCAA in basketball. Who is going to want to see another garden variety Wake Forest (sans Duncan) vs. Arkansas (non-40 minutes of Hell)?

 

[Husky25]

Some interesting random and anonymous coach's quotes:

“I honestly don't see how the non-Big Five will coexist with the new structure. You're already labeling them below the power five now. Let's be honest, Connecticut, Cincinnati, etc. are scrambling to get out of their current conference for a reason. They have to see the writing on the wall. Recruiting high-major kids will be very difficult for those teams that remain outside of power five.”

"Every decision the schools make is made with money in mind. So if they decide they can make more money by breaking away, they'll breakaway. And they can probably make more money by breaking away."

It's a different sport without ALL the conferences. The AAC is not a power football conference to be sure, but they are definitely a conference to make some noise in basketball. This is a season induced article, IMO.

 

[Dooley]

It's a different sport without ALL the conferences. The AAC is not a power football conference to be sure, but they are definitely a conference to make some noise in basketball. This is a season induced article, IMO.

Look, I agree with you and everyone who says that the Tourney wouldn't be the same without the "cinderella" stories. But we're not talking about protecting sacred NCAA traditions or pageantry. We're talking about making money. CR and autonomy is about making money and ONLY making money. P5 schools can and will make a TON more money when they split altogether and auction off their tournament to the highest bidder. The TV contract for the P5 Hoops Tourney will absolutely trump the G5/"best of the rest" NCAAT TV contract.

 

[Husky25]

Look, I agree with you and everyone who says that the Tourney wouldn't be the same without the "cinderella" stories. But we're not talking about protecting sacred NCAA traditions or pageantry. We're talking about making money. CR and autonomy is about making money and ONLY making money. P5 schools can and will make a TON more money when they split altogether and auction off their tournament to the highest bidder. The TV contract for the P5 Hoops Tourney will absolutely trump the G5/"best of the rest" NCAAT TV contract.

The good teams in football are mostly in the south and mid west and a sprinkling out west. That's all well and great until you consider that the United States population is primarily located on the Coasts, with a focus between Boston and Washington D.C.

"East Coast Bias" is not a myth. If the 5CSMA wish to break away from the other 250 schools eligible for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, CBS will absolutely want to open up a re-negotiation based on content...i.e. less money for the NCAA...

If not, a few Las Vegas Sharks...I Mean Sharps...will put a couple contracts where Mark Q. Emmert doesn't want them.

Of course it is 8:56 on a Friday night. So what do I know?

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Face it in Hoops both the SEC a PAC12 are pretty top Heavy
A P5 tourney will be a huge bore unless it includes at least double the schools to have a 64 (65) team tourney
With 14 Scholarships for D1 BB that's doable.

I tried to make this case on the Hoops board not too long ago and was essentially laughed out of the room.

This is very real and I think it will be coming at some point in the next 10 years. The very fact that the Tournament is run by the NCAA (and therefore the NCAA profits from it) is the very reason a split will come. Autonomy hasn't happened because schools all of a sudden grew concerned about players' inability to have a midnight snack or health insurance. It's happened for money. Once all of these lawsuits are settled and final, the focus will go back to "how can we make more money?" The answer: split the P5 schools and maybe a few others to create a different, new tournament and farm it out to the highest TV bidder. When you stop to think about the MASSIVE markets and fan bases that fall inside the P5, the bids will be astronomical.

I just hope that UCONN has found a P5 home before this happens.

The p5 tourney will never happen .
There are not enough credible teams
Your can create a super BB conference but to duplicate the current tourney you need an additional 60-80 teams .
The 14 scholarship players most likely could sustain the additional expense with their Tourney share.
That's one reason the p5 will not separate completely from the NCAA.

 

[TRest]

Face it in Hoops both the SEC a PAC12 are pretty top Heavy
A P5 tourney will be a huge bore unless it includes at least double the schools to have a 64 (65) team tourney
With 14 Scholarships for D1 BB that's doable.

The p5 tourney will never happen .
There are not enough credible teams
Your can create a super BB conference but to duplicate the current tourney you need an additional 60-80 teams .
The 14 scholarship players most likely could sustain the additional expense with their Tourney share.
That's one reason the p5 will not separate completely from the NCAA.

Most likely the P5 will continue making moves that ultimately force the lowest Div 1 conferences out of the classification. They do have a point that 300 plus Division 1 schools is about 100 too many, most of which are just there to pick up a paycheck.

 

[pj]

If the P5 breakaway and are only playing themselves, first, the tourney games will duplicate a lot of regular season games. It will look a lot like a Big Ten - ACC challenge, only at the end of the season. Second, it will be a smaller shorter tourney. With only 65 schools, half with losing records, it will be hard to select more than 16 or maybe 24 schools. That's a 2 week tourney and interest will be limited to 16-24 fanbases. Moreover the same teams will be in every year, so it will get repetitive.

Meanwhile there will be a separate tourney for the non-P5, and so we'l have two champions. This will create demand for a super-championship between the divisional champions.

What would create more interest is if at some point you merge the tourneys -- the P5 Final Four and the non-P5 Final Four get matched for an 8-team tourney. But then the P5 would have to share the money.

I don't know that it would generate much more money for the P5. Maybe, but the NCAA tourney credits are already distributed largely to the P5. And since the P5 have the big network contracts, they will have a big lead in exposure and that will give them a bigger advantage in recruiting. I think they might find they're getting all the money there is to be had with the current basketball structure.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think the P5 have to realize that they make the most money with more teams, and that it generates the most interest. I doubt they do much on the basketball side besides, perhaps, find ways to game the system so that they either 1) get more bids; and/or 2) allot themselves more money or scholarships so that they get an even larger competitive advantage.

 

[Dooley]

What if they change the model of college hoops? Make regular seasons matter. Seedings based on conference finish. Limit it to top 3 in each P5 conference or something. That would drive regular season TV ratings too.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I think the P5 have to realize that they make the most money with more teams, and that it generates the most interest. I doubt they do much on the basketball side besides, perhaps, find ways to game the system so that they either 1) get more bids; and/or 2) allot themselves more money or scholarships so that they get an even larger competitive advantage.

To be honest, no one cares about Fleener State U maybe winning it as the cinderella story. There are like 5 people watching the tourney because of that one tiny school that managed to find 5 guys in the middle of nowhere that can shoot hoops. Let's face it, the bulk of the fans of college sports that drive huge TV contracts come from the P5. It's all the big schools with huge alumni bases that ultimately matter when it comes to $$$.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

As long as the NCAA/P5 allows the One and Done rule, aka Kentucky Wildcats, the underdogs of the world will always have a chance because many times, a team will win over a bunch of talented individuals on any given night.

 

[Marty Jackson]

To be honest, no one cares about Fleener State U maybe winning it as the cinderella story. There are like 5 people watching the tourney because of that one tiny school that managed to find 5 guys in the middle of nowhere that can shoot hoops. Let's face it, the bulk of the fans of college sports that drive huge TV contracts come from the P5. It's all the big schools with huge alumni bases that ultimately matter when it comes to $.

wichita st caused quite a stir last year, for no other reason than people wanted to see how good they were. they were a big topic last year, that I'm sure more than 5 people tuned in to see.

 

[tzznandrew]

To be honest, no one cares about Fleener State U maybe winning it as the cinderella story. There are like 5 people watching the tourney because of that one tiny school that managed to find 5 guys in the middle of nowhere that can shoot hoops. Let's face it, the bulk of the fans of college sports that drive huge TV contracts come from the P5. It's all the big schools with huge alumni bases that ultimately matter when it comes to $.

Eh. You make money on David v. Goliath.

Wichita State vs. Kentucky
Butler vs. Duke
Indiana State vs. Michigan State

When you think of the most loved moments in NCAA tournament history, so many of them involve these small schools. People may turn in to watch Kentucky, Duke, or UNC, but most of those viewers enjoy the game more (and a game gains viewers as it goes on) when one of those teams is in a close game against an underdog...and especially if that underdog wins.

 

[Marty Jackson]

here's what the P5 don't get... it won't happen in one year or two. But at some point, parity and stagnation sets in... and after the 10th matchup between Bama and OSU or Michigan or Texas, people are going to find something else to follow.

 

[Marty Jackson]

how do you tell villanova or georgetown their basketball programs don't compare to boston college, washington state, or even TCU.

 

[pj]

What if they change the model of college hoops? Make regular seasons matter. Seedings based on conference finish. Limit it to top 3 in each P5 conference or something. That would drive regular season TV ratings too.

The ACC didn't collect UNC, Duke, Cuse, L'ville, Pitt, ND, etc so that their tourney bids could be limited to 3.

 

[CL82]

If the P5 breakaway and are only playing themselves, first, the tourney games will duplicate a lot of regular season games. It will look a lot like a Big Ten - ACC challenge, only at the end of the season. Second, it will be a smaller shorter tourney. With only 65 schools, half with losing records, it will be hard to select more than 16 or maybe 24 schools. That's a 2 week tourney and interest will be limited to 16-24 fanbases. Moreover the same teams will be in every year, so it will get repetitive.

Meanwhile there will be a separate tourney for the non-P5, and so we'l have two champions. This will create demand for a super-championship between the divisional champions.

What would create more interest is if at some point you merge the tourneys -- the P5 Final Four and the non-P5 Final Four get matched for an 8-team tourney. But then the P5 would have to share the money.

I don't know that it would generate much more money for the P5. Maybe, but the NCAA tourney credits are already distributed largely to the P5. And since the P5 have the big network contracts, they will have a big lead in exposure and that will give them a bigger advantage in recruiting. I think they might find they're getting all the money there is to be had with the current basketball structure.

That's one of the reasons I thought the threat of a split was a bluff.

 

[Dooley]

The ACC didn't collect UNC, Duke, Cuse, L'ville, Pitt, ND, etc so that their tourney bids could be limited to 3.

No, of course not. But if they are looking to begin their own network, they would dominate the winter months. And if the tournament changed from 64 schools randomly placed by a committee based on opinion to actual seeding based on regular season games, then that gives regular season games more meaning. That means more people would watch. That means more money. And that's what this is always about.

 

[Husky25]

If the P5 breakaway and are only playing themselves.

Syracuse would never agree to that. Half of their win streak and path to #1 last year was paved by 1/2 with the likes of Niagara, and Buffalo Tertiary School for Boys...For the Blind.

OOC scheds. for other "powerhouses" are also filled with cupcakes.

Autonomy works for the 5CSMA in football because the BCS and Bowls are not administered by the NCAA. March Madness is.

 

[UConnDan97]

The non-P5 has had a team in the Championship game 4 times out of the last 7 years (not including Louisville, since they will be in the ACC). When UConn beat Butler, it was a completely non-P5 final. And as we all know, a non-P5 team has won 2 of the last 4. My message to the "P5" conferences would be; "Exclude the non-P5 basketball schools at your own peril..."

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I don't have the link handy, but I think everyone saying the Cinderellas are what make March madness " special" are correct, however, the big name schools still drive the ratings and not the feel good stories. It is what it is.

Just for example. Say the tournament's value (using arbritrary and overly crude numbers) is cut in half:

1B / 300 teams = 3.33M per team

500M / 65 teams = 7.65M per team

Would it ruin the allure of the tournament. Yes.

Would it long term be a poor decision? Probably.

In the short term does it make the Resource 5 richer? Yes.

Given how everything has played out, I could easily see this happening - or to UConn's favor I could see something like conference avg RPI being used so BE,A10,AAC,MWC can still compete. Basically eliminating the low majors.