Big 12 expansion - maybe not. | Page 5 | The Boneyard

Big 12 expansion - maybe not.

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A poster by the name of MSMoose at the 247 Bearcats board:

http://cincinnati.247 sports.com/Board/39/Contents/January-expansion-thread-2015-34306826?Page=13#M34596218

Well, thankfully my kind doctor’s released me today. As promised here is my update, although more brief than expected;
I have been told that Big 12 expansion is imminent!
The Big 12 is satisfied that expansion will be beneficial to the conference from an Athletics and Academic standpoint, and feel now is the time to expand. A window in the Big 12 television contracts will allow for renegotiation of the contracts, allowing the Big 12 to maintain its payouts to members.
I was told by three very credible sources, Cincinnati will be the 11th member of the Big 12. As to the possible 12th member I am told University of South Florida may be invited. UC and USF set themselves apart from other possible expansion candidates, when one takes into account the university and what it offers the Big 12. UC and USF are top 50 research institutions with tremendous growth, supported by endowments to facilitate future growth. Both universities reside in top 25 markets (Cincinnati-Dayton), and are instrumental to the urban core where they reside. Finally, both universities reside in a top 5 state for college recruitment.
To answer your obvious questions?
When will this be announced? I would give a date, however then you would hold me to it. I will tell you it will not be long.
How does the Big 12 scheduling work with 11 or 12 teams versus 10 schools? Plans have been made and agreed upon. I personally like the 11 team conference setup, however I understand the real importance of having a school in the state of Florida.
Will the Big 12 have a CCG? If the conference expands to 11 teams, and the waiver is approved, then YES. If the waiver is not approved, then NO. If the conference expands to 12 teams, then YES.
I will post more details later, for now I need to rest.
 

Dooley

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Any expansion rumor that values USF's CR profile over UCONN is absurd. There is no school, not even Cincinnati, that brings larger market penetration to a P5 conference than UCONN. Period.
 

FfldCntyFan

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The B-12(10) is not doing anything until a ruling is made on their petition to change the requirements on a championship games. If this is changed to where they can hold a championship game with ten members, they won't expand.

There has been a lot of talk about the ACC wanting the rules altered on who the conference can select to play in the championship game and that the B1G would prefer the requirement that a school must play every school within their division be eliminated. If the latter two conferences throw support behind the B-12's petition, there is a very strong chance that the NCAA will grant all three their requests.

This would close the door (temporarily) on B-12 expansion but could open up further expansion by the B1G and possibly the SEC (as the B1G's request is one major deterrent of expansion to sixteen members).
 
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For some programs, a presence in Florida is highly desired. For recruiting.

WVU has 23 Florida kids on their roster...and even Iowa State had 21 Floridians.
 

CL82

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A poster by the name of MSMoose at the 247 Bearcats board:

http://cincinnati.247 sports.com/Board/39/Contents/January-expansion-thread-2015-34306826?Page=13#M34596218
Oh-no.jpeg
 

pj

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For some programs, a presence in Florida is highly desired. For recruiting.

WVU has 23 Florida kids on their roster...and even Iowa State had 21 Floridians.

By southern standards, Florida is underpenetrated by college football programs. Texas has 26 mn people and 6 P5 programs; Florida has 20 mn and 3 P5 programs; Alabama has 5 mn and 2 programs; Georgia has 10 mn and 2 programs. The norm is 3-5 mn people per program. Having over 6 mn people per local program gives Florida State and Florida a major recruiting advantage, and the SEC and ACC more generally; light penetration in Georgia also helps the two leagues. It wouldn't be a big surprise if, now that the SEC has entered Texas, the B12 sees a need to compete with the SEC and ACC for the southeast. If so they might go for both UCF and USF.

But, they'd probably be better off taking one, best of USF or UCF, and going with UConn, adding major northeastern markets and basketball strength as well.

Cincy would be the mediocrity choice - middling at everything (market size, football recruiting, football performance, basketball performance) and a little better geographically than UConn.
 
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Drew

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imagine how pissed people will be when FAU and FIU get SEC P5 invites over us :rolleyes:
 
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By southern standards, Florida is underpenetrated by college football programs. Texas has 26 mn people and 6 P5 programs; Florida has 20 mn and 3 P5 programs; Alabama has 5 mn and 2 programs; Georgia has 10 mn and 2 programs. The norm is 3-5 mn people per program. Having over 6 mn people per local program gives Florida State and Florida a major recruiting advantage, and the SEC and ACC more generally; light penetration in Georgia also helps the two leagues. It wouldn't be a big surprise if, now that the SEC has entered Texas, the B12 sees a need to compete with the SEC and ACC for the southeast. If so they might go for both UCF and USF.

But, they'd probably be better off taking one, best of USF or UCF, and going with UConn, adding major northeastern markets and basketball strength as well.

Cincy would be the mediocrity choice - middling at everything (market size, football recruiting, football performance, basketball performance) and a little better geographically than UConn.


True..But FSU does cherry pick Georgia and other southern states....Cam Erving and PJ Williams are two Nole Georgia kids projected for 1st round in draft...and Georgia kid Rashad Greene will go in the 2nd to 3rd round this year.
 
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By southern standards, Florida is underpenetrated by college football programs. Texas has 26 mn people and 6 P5 programs; Florida has 20 mn and 3 P5 programs; Alabama has 5 mn and 2 programs; Georgia has 10 mn and 2 programs. The norm is 3-5 mn people per program. Having over 6 mn people per local program gives Florida State and Florida a major recruiting advantage, and the SEC and ACC more generally; light penetration in Georgia also helps the two leagues. It wouldn't be a big surprise if, now that the SEC has entered Texas, the B12 sees a need to compete with the SEC and ACC for the southeast. If so they might go for both UCF and USF.

But, they'd probably be better off taking one, best of USF or UCF, and going with UConn, adding major northeastern markets and basketball strength as well.

Cincy would be the mediocrity choice - middling at everything (market size, football recruiting, football performance, basketball performance) and a little better geographically than UConn.
Ohio has 12 mm people and 1 program so I think that helps Cincy, regardless of how little fan support people claim it gets.
 
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Cincy would be the mediocrity choice - middling at everything (market size, football recruiting, football performance, basketball performance) and a little better geographically than UConn.

Cincinnati middling really?
Since 2007 Football is 75-29 (7 bowls in 8 years).
Since 2010 Basketball is 112-42 (four straight tournaments, one sweet sixteen)
Ohio is 4th or 5th every year in football recruiting (swapping with Georgia, behind Texas, Florida, California)

Geography (closest two teams):
Cincinnati to Morgantown: 304 miles
Cincinnati to Aimes: 611 miles

UCONN to Morgantown: 523 miles
UCONN to Aimes: 1261 miles
 

pj

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Cincinnati middling really?
Since 2007 Football is 75-29 (7 bowls in 8 years).
Since 2010 Basketball is 112-42 (four straight tournaments, one sweet sixteen)
Ohio is 4th or 5th every year in football recruiting (swapping with Georgia, behind Texas, Florida, California)

Geography (closest two teams):
Cincinnati to Morgantown: 304 miles
Cincinnati to Aimes: 611 miles

UCONN to Morgantown: 523 miles
UCONN to Aimes: 1261 miles

Precisely. Cincy is at best in the middle of the P5 teams on all of those metrics. Whereas UConn is in the upper half of some metrics (market size, basketball success) and lower half in others.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Ohio State winning was pretty much the worst outcome for the Big 12. No one will remember TCU getting "screwed" or that it was even controversial now that tOSU won. And next time it is close between a Big 12 team and one of the other majors, which way will the Committee go?
 
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Ohio State winning was pretty much the worst outcome for the Big 12. No one will remember TCU getting "screwed" or that it was even controversial now that tOSU won. And next time it is close between a Big 12 team and one of the other majors, which way will the Committee go?

Disagree. If anything it should motivate the Big 12 to consider expansion more closely. We'll never know if TCU got screwed or not because they won't play OSU. Had they played a rematch with Baylor, and won in impressive fashion, they likely make the playoff.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Disagree. If anything it should motivate the Big 12 to consider expansion more closely. We'll never know if TCU got screwed or not because they won't play OSU. Had they played a rematch with Baylor, and won in impressive fashion, they likely make the playoff.

I don't think you are disagreeing with me. The message the Big 12 got was that the Committee will pick an SEC, Big 10, or Pac 12 team over a Big 12 team if it is close, and with tOSU winning, the committee's decision looks justified. Now the Committee will do it every time.

If TCU had a Big 12 championship win over Baylor, they get the nod. I suspect that if Texas and Oklahoma got left out instead of Baylor and TCU, expansion would already be underway. It may take several snubs or Texas and Oklahoma getting left out to trigger expansion.
 
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If the Big XII wants to be a serious contender for NCs they need to expand. If they had a CCG then this year's champion wouldn't have made the field. TCU or Baylor could have won it all. Its interesting, though. Will the B XII hold out until the CFB goes to 8 or will they be proactive and add two new members? And one last thing to consider is that the 4 CFB participants were flagship schools of their conference. So I think if they were expand it would be wise to not bring it teams that would be good enough to beat the top schools, but probably not good enough to make it into the CFB; schools like Cincy or UCF. Instead, I think they should bring in UConn and someone else. ;)
 
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As most people seem to think, the Big 12 will stand pat and enjoy its 12 slice pie split 10 ways. Greed. When Texas is as good as Ohio State has been this year, Texas will get in the play-offs regardless of what that conference does. Having Ohio State own the lone star state this week has got to be a tough pill to swallow for that conference.
 
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As most people seem to think, the Big 12 will stand pat and enjoy its 12 slice pie split 10 ways. Greed. When Texas is as good as Ohio State has been this year, Texas will get in the play-offs regardless of what that conference does. Having Ohio State own the lone star state this week has got to be a tough pill to swallow for that conference.

I wonder what was a harder pill to swallow? U Texas watching a B1G school win the inaugural national championship game in Dallas or Mark Emmert watching UConn win yet another men's basketball championship, also in Dallas at the same venue?

As for U Texas, they control the fate of the XII and have the most options since should U Texas decide to walk away from the XII, the other 4 P5 conferences will line-up at their door to a varying degree. That will not be the case for Iowa St, TCU, Texas tech and others. I suspect that U Texas will continue to support the status quo, i.e. XII at 10 schools, until the financial and competitive disparity between the big names at the other P5 conferences (USC, Michigan, Ohio St, Florida St, Alabama, Florida, and especially Texas A&M) becomes to big to ignore. The only wildcard is if one of the lesser XII schools like Kansas (B1G) can figure out a way out of the GOR and jump ship early, which woudl force U Texas' hand.
 
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