Big 12 Doomsday Scenariosl

[Waquoit]

Currently we have no hope. None, zero, nada, zilch. We are dead in the water. Chaos gives us our only chance. Then perhaps we can luck into a spot as some kind of compromise candidate.

 

[djct1999]

Ironically, I think there is only one other P5 league that would take Texas: the ACC. The SEC, Pac 12 and Big 10 would not tolerate Texas' shenanigans, and the Pac 12 has already passed on the longhorns once and doesn't seem to regret the decision. This might be why Texas is somewhat flexible about making the Big 12 work.

Even if you think UConn has no chance at getting in the Big 12, why would you want 10 other major programs scrambling for invitations to the surviving 4 leagues? That is just crazy. How did the contraction of 6 to 5 major conferences work out for UConn? Does anyone think the contraction from 5 to 4 will be any better?

Yes, I do. UConn needs an external catalyst. The implosion of the Big12 will provide just that. Besides, of those 10 schools scrambling, how many are better fits in the B1g or ACC. Surely not all 10.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The PAC wouldn't expand. I think they are the most stable conference in the sense they will remain static at 12 members.

I think the destruction of the Big12 is overblown.

I think Oklahoma will be added to the B1G due to the Tier 1 deal as opposed to B1G Network purposes. Then it's a matter of can they add a UVA, UNC (still doubt they leave the ACC) or a Kansas, VT (I think would go) and then we would be the 5th option to get to 16.

Say the Big12 loses OU and KU, I'm still not sure how much of a catalyst that is for Texas to do anything. They'd still run the league, have their LHN and can schedule anyone in America for football.

The "doomsday" for UConn is OU, KU going to the B1G and the Big12 expanding with 4 to get to 12 and it's Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, USF.

 

[itgoeslike]

If there is longterm stability among the P5 conferences, UConn likely gets an invite from the Big Ten or ACC, mainly because it's the most valuable program still available. The problem with this scenario is that the time required to finally come to this determination is way too long for the average UConn fan (and its program). Unfortunately, as long as there is a hint of instability, the Big Ten is going to keep its powder dry. If the Big 12 does implode, I do fear that the Big Ten and even the ACC lock up spots. If the PAC or SEC pick up top schools, that would benefit UConn. The only saving grace in this scenario is that B1G and ACC expand beyond 16 and are forced to pick up any remaining viable schools. UConn would be likely be selected at that point.

 

[djct1999]

The PAC wouldn't expand. I think they are the most stable conference in the sense they will remain static at 12 members.

I think the destruction of the Big12 is overblown.

I think Oklahoma will be added to the B1G due to the Tier 1 deal as opposed to B1G Network purposes. Then it's a matter of can they add a UVA, UNC (still doubt they leave the ACC) or a Kansas, VT (I think would go) and then we would be the 5th option to get to 16.

Say the Big12 loses OU and KU, I'm still not sure how much of a catalyst that is for Texas to do anything. They'd still run the league, have their LHN and can schedule anyone in America for football.

The "doomsday" for UConn is OU, KU going to the B1G and the Big12 expanding with 4 to get to 12 and it's Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, USF.

I agree that this is the doomsday scenario for UConn. I simply don't agree that under this scenario, everything else remains static. At this point, the ACC would lose all other viable options and thus would add UConn as a 16th in fear. Similar to how/why they added Louisville.

Besides, at this point, I would think the Big12 would need UConn hoops.

 

[itgoeslike]

I think the destruction of the Big12 is overblown.

I'm not sure if OU wants out (a lot of their fans appear to want that) or if they are posturing to force expansion. The Big 12 does make more than the ACC. Their TV deal is richer (and not front/even loaded), their post season bowls are richer, and their tier 2 and tier 3 deals are richer. The separation between the Big 12 and ACC is going to become more pronounced in the next two to three years. There could be some in the Big12 that feel doing nothing may free up a couple of ACC schools eventually, while for others, doing nothing for three years is an even bigger risk. It really boils down to what the top earners want to to do. As long as the Texas/ESPN deal is in place, Texas is making as much or more than anyone in the country. The rub for OU is that without a equitable TV network they're earning potential is capped and will witness Nebraska eventually earning significantly more.

 

[junglehusky]

The PAC wouldn't expand. I think they are the most stable conference in the sense they will remain static at 12 members.

I think the destruction of the Big12 is overblown.

I think Oklahoma will be added to the B1G due to the Tier 1 deal as opposed to B1G Network purposes. Then it's a matter of can they add a UVA, UNC (still doubt they leave the ACC) or a Kansas, VT (I think would go) and then we would be the 5th option to get to 16.

Say the Big12 loses OU and KU, I'm still not sure how much of a catalyst that is for Texas to do anything. They'd still run the league, have their LHN and can schedule anyone in America for football.

The "doomsday" for UConn is OU, KU going to the B1G and the Big12 expanding with 4 to get to 12 and it's Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, USF.

If the Big 12 does implode, I do fear that the Big Ten and even the ACC lock up spots. If the PAC or SEC pick up top schools, that would benefit UConn.

Hmmm. Yes, I agree that whether the Pac12 decides to add schools or stay where it is could be a pivot point with ripple effects that would impact UConn's chances. The fact that Texas's leadership has changed and the LHN is not doing too well might open the possibility of Texas going to the West coast, but for all we know they might still prefer the ACC or maybe they'll decide to play ball with B1G. Maybe CHB is right and they'd keep their own island of misfit toys. Then they'd replace OU/UK and go to 12 with 4 adds, which could benefit UConn's chances of getting invited. But by then the BXII would be AAC 2.0 + Texas.

If the B12 self destructs, and you throw the B12+AAC+MWC schools in a pot, I'd be cautiously optimistic that UConn would be in the group of "desirables" (Big publics with markets, established brands, success) along with Texas, OU, KU, UCF (mostly for market and school size), & BYU at the top of the pool. In this scenario, the schools that are rumored to be on the B12's list (Memphis, Houston, Cincy) due to recent football success (in Houston's case, just spending $$$ / hiring Herman / recruiting) are neutralized since they duplicate markets already in the B1G/ACC/SEC, though they might still find spots. Of course, UConn's position would be greatly improved if the Pac adds 2-4 out of the "desirables" while leaving a partner for us to go to the ACC or B1G.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Hmmm. Yes, I agree that whether the Pac12 decides to add schools or stay where it is could be a pivot point with ripple effects that would impact UConn's chances. The fact that Texas's leadership has changed and the LHN is not doing too well might open the possibility of Texas going to the West coast, but for all we know they might still prefer the ACC or maybe they'll decide to play ball with B1G. Maybe CHB is right and they'd keep their own island of misfit toys. Then they'd replace OU/UK and go to 12 with 4 adds, which could benefit UConn's chances of getting invited. But by then the BXII would be AAC 2.0 + Texas.

But that's the thing. Texas may be a league-making brand. It's like how the Big East might have survived if Notre Dame had committed (and/or if Penn State had been admitted in the 80s).

 

[itgoeslike]

Potential scenarios could support:

TEXAS - ACC, PAC, B1G, SEC, IND
OU - SEC, PAC, B1G
KANSAS - B1G, SEC
OKST - SEC, PAC
KSTATE - SEC, AAC, MW
WVU - ACC, SEC, AAC
BAYLOR - ACC, AAC, MW, PAC
TCU - ACC, AAC, MW, PAC
TT - MW, PAC
IOWA ST - AAC

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Sorry the destruct model of the Big12 is our worse nightmare
The guys who are moaning "things can't get worse" must have very limited real life experience.
Things can always get worse and Big 12 destruction is and example ,it puts better programs than us in a contracting open market ,increasing the odds of a soft landing dramically.
Our best hope is that the current P5 expands, any other wish than that is nihilistic trill seeking.

Agreed

 

[UConnDan97]

I can't see Oklahoma going somewhere other than where Texas goes. I can't see Oklahoma State going somewhere other than where Oklahoma goes (due to state political pressure). The rest is up in the air...

 

[Afroabe224]

View attachment 10100

Agreed

Love the meme (that made my morning)!

As far as the big 12 though, I say we double down on CR and hope for an implosion. Can it really get worse than playing bball games @ Tulane/Tulsa/ECU??

 

[itgoeslike]

View attachment 10100

Agreed

In UConn's case, you could argue we got screwed and then stuck as well as getting stuck and then screwed. . .

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I'm not sure if OU wants out (a lot of their fans appear to want that) or if they are posturing to force expansion. The Big 12 does make more than the ACC. Their TV deal is richer (and not front/even loaded), their post season bowls are richer, and their tier 2 and tier 3 deals are richer. The separation between the Big 12 and ACC is going to become more pronounced in the next two to three years. There could be some in the Big12 that feel doing nothing may free up a couple of ACC schools eventually, while for others, doing nothing for three years is an even bigger risk. It really boils down to what the top earners want to to do. As long as the Texas/ESPN deal is in place, Texas is making as much or more than anyone in the country. The rub for OU is that without a equitable TV network they're earning potential is capped and will witness Nebraska eventually earning significantly more.

There is money and also the apparent fact that an 1 loss XII team with no conference championship title under its belt ends up outside of the football playoffs due to 1 loss conference championship teams from the B1G, PAC, and SEC and an undefeated conference championship from the ACC. Heck, a 1 loss ND team also without a conference championship may also be able to slip by a 1 loss XII team based on strength of schedule and 'other' factors.

 

[itgoeslike]

I can't see Oklahoma going somewhere other than where Texas goes. I can't see Oklahoma State going somewhere other than where Oklahoma goes (due to state political pressure). The rest is up in the air...

There could be a remote scenario where implosion is imminent and "discussions" take place that an OU move to the B1G (perhaps with Texas and Kansas) would be contingent upon the SEC absorbing OKST (perhaps with Kansas State and Texas Tech). Of course, it would have to be in the interest of all parties.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

 

[itgoeslike]

There is money and also the apparent fact that an 1 loss XII team with no conference championship title under its belt ends up outside of the football playoffs due to 1 loss conference championship teams from the B1G, PAC, and SEC and an undefeated conference championship from the ACC. Heck, a 1 loss ND team also without a conference championship may also be able to slip by a 1 loss XII team based on strength of schedule and 'other' factors.

At the end of the season, the Big 12 had two teams ranked in the top 6 (I think). A victory by either team over a top 6 opponent would have likely put the victor into the playoffs.

 

[CallMeBruce]

At the end of the season, the Big 12 had two teams ranked in the top 6 (I think). A victory by either team over a top 6 opponent would have likely put the victor into the playoffs.

By RPI, TCU was #5 and Baylor was #7, so yeah, I think both of those schools were an eyelash away from the playoff. It's entirely possible that, if they had been able to play a CCG against each other, that the winner gets in.

 

[itgoeslike]

By RPI, TCU was #5 and Baylor was #7, so yeah, I think both of those schools were an eyelash away from the playoff. It's entirely possible that, if they had been able to play a CCG against each other, that the winner gets in.

And there's no question that the Big Ten benefitted from their championship game. . .

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

For me it's option 1 as well. That is actually one heck of a football conference. Probably better than the Big East for football at the time of its demise. Nothing will match what Big East basketball was but that's long gone and never to be replicated.

 

[junglehusky]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

If that league had some kind of guarantee that it would not lose any members, and there wasn't a danger of the money going away (over the long term hard to know that given cable cutting) then yes.

Things that would make that arrangement more palatable:

• CFP expansion to 6, 8 or more teams for non-P4 access.
  
• More playoff $$$ distributed to the merged conference
• ESPN contract rather than Fox - better exposure. (ESPN stopping the loss of subscribers would help here)
  
• If the "leftovers" include one or more of Kansas, OU, Texas, BYU - marquee brands.
• Still being able to schedule P4 OOC games, rather than all of them shutting out non-P4

 

[Point6]

I think the B12 picks up UCF, USF, ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, Cincy, SMU, Houston, Memphis and Navy (for FB only) and survives.

 

[don356]

Yes, they can call it the AAC 12.

 

[Kolumbo]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

That would be a fine football conference, perhaps better than the ACC. Therefore none of those Big 12 programs would ever agree to being locked out of the P4.

 

[jostar1]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

That's the acceptance stage of grief.