Big 12 Doomsday Scenariosl

[OkaForPrez]

With the Big 12 looking more and more like the dead Big East walking and the Austin beat reporter saying its when not if, let's walk through some of the post apocolyptic war games. Who are the (ahem) huskies of the conference likely to be left for dead? Who finds a home easily? Who has a golden ticket to any conference of their choosing? Who are the WVU any port in a stormers? If we can establish a rough consensus on those four groups we can start to sketch out possible B1G/ACC scenarios that throw us a bone.

My hot take for criticism to get us started:

Golden Ticket: UT
Sold Day 1: OU
Any Port: KU, Baylor, WVU, OKST
LFD: TCU, KSU, TTech, ISU

 

[Hoophound]

It leaves a lot of interesting possibilities. Can there really only be a P4? Sure seems that there could be one or two very strong conferences made out of the B12 leftovers and the AAC/MWC

 

[OkaForPrez]

It leaves a lot of interesting possibilities. Can there really only be a P4? Sure seems that there could be one or two very strong conferences made out of the B12 leftovers and the AAC/MWC

$ = Power. If you don't have anchor schools in your conference to dictate 20 mil+ per year in TV revenue it doesn't matter how good you are between the lines the machine will phase you out IMHO.

 

[Fishy]

Fine - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas

Somehow lands on feet - West Virginia

Needs friends - Okie State

Needs a lot of friends - Texas Tech,

Probably - Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Christian, Iowa State

It should probably be mentioned that the implosion of the Big 12 could strand us in the land of misfit toys forever.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Fine - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas
It should probably be mentioned that the implosion of the Big 12 could strand us in the land of misfit toys forever.

I think I'd still sign up for more churn even with that risk. Without it were dying on the vine in the decade waiting for anything else to happen.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think we need the Big 12 to survive. I can not come up with a scenario where the Big 12 fails and we succeed. The Big 12's saving grace is the universal dislike of Texas.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Sorry the destruct model of the Big12 is our worse nightmare
The guys who are moaning "things can't get worse" must have very limited real life experience.
Things can always get worse and Big 12 destruction is and example ,it puts better programs than us in a contracting open market ,increasing the odds of a soft landing dramically.
Our best hope is that the current P5 expands, any other wish than that is nihilistic trill seeking.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Contracting market yes @AZHuskiePop, the question is in the descending order of program value where does UConn sit among the Big 12 Schools? Just because we're outside the cartel doesn't mean we aren't above K State in the pecking order. And if it's an odd number of schools (not including us) above the +revenue threshold for the ACC and B1G, we could be absorbed in the reallocation.

- 10 Big 12 schools + 7 Big 12 schools + UConn is still contraction.

Take Fishy's list: hypothetically let's say Texas gets a sweetheart deal from the PAC and OKST goes with them. Kansas and OU get the B1G. WVU has enough value to get the ACC to bite, maybe we are +1 with the mountaineers.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Contracting market yes @AZHuskiePop, the question is in the descending order of program value where does UConn sit among the Big 12 Schools? Just because we're outside the cartel doesn't mean we aren't above K State in the pecking order. And if it's an odd number of schools (not including us) above the +revenue threshold for the ACC and B1G, we could be absorbed in the reallocation.

- 10 Big 12 schools + 7 Big 12 schools + UConn is still contraction.

Take Fishy's list: hypothetically let's say Texas gets a sweetheart deal from the PAC and OKST goes with them. Kansas and OU get the B1G. WVU has enough value to get the ACC to bite, maybe we are +1 with the mountaineers.

No. if the Big 12 collapses, Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas or TCU are saved. Every other Big 12 school joins the AAC or MWC. The remaining P5 schools get a pay raise, making it more expensive to add an outsider.

We need the Big 12 to expand, not contract. Even serious interest in UConn from the Big 12 may cause the ACC to add us.

 

[djct1999]

Lets put an end to this madness! Please, return your football season tickets, don't go to a single game, and lets hope the administration sees that big time athletics has no part in UConn's future! The only two schools who don't need to worry are UT and OU. When has Kansas become a player? When this whole mess started it was believed that they would be heading to the Mountain West. Now, I am to believe that Delaney is doing cartwheels over the possibilities of locking up the Kansas City market at the expense of the Northeast corridor. Come on guys.

 

[pj]

Lets put an end to this madness! Please, return your football season tickets, don't go to a single game, and lets hope the administration sees that big time athletics has no part in UConn's future! The only two schools who don't need to worry are UT and OU. When has Kansas become a player? When this whole mess started it was believed that they would be heading to the Mountain West. Now, I am to believe that Delaney is doing cartwheels over the possibilities of locking up the Kansas City market at the expense of the Northeast corridor. Come on guys.

The emergence of conference cable networks in need of year-round content has lifted the schools with great basketball brands like Kansas and UConn. Also those with good markets, like UConn. Our problem is that there is only one league with a conference that is geographically accessible, the B1G, and we have lacked a partner for them. Kansas can be that partner.

 

[djct1999]

The emergence of conference cable networks in need of year-round content has lifted the schools with great basketball brands like Kansas and UConn. Also those with good markets, like UConn. Our problem is that there is only one league with a conference that is geographically accessible, the B1G, and we have lacked a partner for them. Kansas can be that partner.

Thats just it. Kansas needs a partner. As a stand alone, there is no way the B1g is interested. I get that it can help bridge a gap to OU. I get that the basketball program makes it a natural partner to UConn. BUT, if OU goes to the Pac12, Kansas can very well find itself on the outside looking in. The last few days all I have heard is Kansas is a lock. That is simply not the case. They have as much to worry about as we do. They do not control their own fate. We have been brainwashed to believe that football drives the bus. Huh? Kansas and its midsize tv market can provide content but UConn can't? As stand alone universities, UConn provides more than KU. If we had AAU status(which again we can obtain), it would be a landslide. I don't care how long it takes for us to gain that status, people have to be forward thinking and UConn provides ALOT.

 

[Kolumbo]

whatever happens, at some point, the powers that be will recognize that decent programs like ISU, Kansas State, etc. (decent does not necessarily mean successful, let's just say "formerly in the Big 12") need to find a landing spot. The rules of the game will change. It will be about what is right, what is the future, and not necessarily what is the most profitable. Those schools will be thrown a life-line somehow; once again timing of this paradigm shift will hurt UCONN, and once again UCONN receives several kicks to the cajones. "Only the One can open the door. And only during that window can that door be opened."

 

[UConn9604]

It should probably be mentioned that the implosion of the Big 12 could strand us in the land of misfit toys forever.

I clicked "Like" not because I like what you wrote (rather, I despite it), but because it is accurate.

If the Big 12 implodes, we may gain a few formerly high-profile misfit toys to play with, but this could cement our fate for 50 years or more.

 

[djct1999]

I clicked "Like" not because I like what you wrote (rather, I despite it), but because it is accurate.

If the Big 12 implodes, we may gain a few formerly high-profile misfit toys to play with, but this could cement our fate for 50 years or more.

If you actually believe this, how in gods name then do you think UConn should financially support a football team now? This simply makes no sense. In 50 years, G5 football won't exist. Hell, I am not sure Wake Forest football will exist.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

If you actually believe this, how in gods name then do you think UConn should financially support a football team now? This simply makes no sense. In 50 years, G5 football won't exist. Hell, I am not sure Wake Forest football will exist.

In 50 years collegiate sports may not exist at all. There's no way to know.

 

[junglehusky]

I think the odds for UConn landing in a P5 with BXII implosion are hard to know because there would be so many pieces on the board, but IMO probably better than the odds that UConn would be at the top of the BXII's list (insert #BegHarder comment here). More pieces on the board and only 4 power conferences then means 16-18-20 team megaconferences are the norm.

 

[djct1999]

I think the odds for UConn landing in a P5 with BXII implosion are hard to know because there would be so many pieces on the board, but IMO probably better than the odds that UConn would be at the top of the BXII's list (insert #BegHarder comment here). More pieces on the board and only 4 power conferences then means 16-18-20 team megaconferences are the norm.

Whatever the cause may be, the effect from any movement is that UConn has a great chance of landing in a power conference.

 

[hexlub]

I said it before (and was happy to see it said here). The implosion of the Big 12 puts more attractive free agents on the market and also takes away a P5 conference. Knowing what we know about how this all works, how could this possibly be good for UConn?

Big 12 expansion is our best hope. BYU, Cincy, Memphis, Boise
This destabilizes the MWC and AAC. So short term things are crappy in Storrs. Long term the P5 is stabilized and UConn stays one of the top non-P5 schools available.

 

[CallMeBruce]

I could see a Big 12 collapse working for us if it leads to all of the major conferences going to 16. If Kansas and OU go to the Big 10, there's nothing in the Big 12 that would be particularly attractive to the SEC (assuming Texas isn't an option), so they'd probably go after a couple of ACC schools - Virginia Tech and one of the Carolina schools, most likely - which could lead to the ACC adding us and WVU. I don't see the ACC going after Iowa State, Kansas State, or Oklahoma State.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

My take...

U Texas - Goes ACC or PAC with a 'special' deal or realizes that over the long term, they will do well in the BIG
Oklahoma - B1G, PAC or SEC based on interest in following or not following U Texas
Kansas - B1G, can't see them anywhere else unless the SEC decides it can live with a weak football brand to get a major basketball brand
OK State - Follows U Texas to the PAC or the SEC decides to 'invest' OK St, especially if OU goes to the B1G
W Virginia - Likely serves as a back fill to the ACC (Louisville to the SEC or UVA/V Tech to the B1G) or the SEC (Missouri to B1G?) gets poached
Baylor/TCU - Gut us that the SEC takes the one with the most value as a second complementary member to A&M in Texas with the other going to AAC/Mountain West. Right now, woudl guess that Baylor gets the call as its football program, facilities and enrollment are slightly ahead of TCU, though TCU is in the DFW metroplex
K State & Texas Tech - PAC due to limited options in their territory, if not PAC, then life in AAC/Mountain West
Iowa St - Unless they have a copy of Delany's little black book due to their AAU status, off the ACC/Mountain West

 

[djct1999]

I said it before (and was happy to see it said here). The implosion of the Big 12 puts more attractive free agents on the market and also takes away a P5 conference. Knowing what we know about how this all works, how could this possibly be good for UConn?

Big 12 expansion is our best hope. BYU, Cincy, Memphis, Boise
This destabilizes the MWC and AAC. So short term things are crappy in Storrs. Long term the P5 is stabilized and UConn stays one of the top non-P5 schools available.

How does it help? Let me see. The holy grail in all of this is still the Northeast Corridor. Either the B1g expedites the process of getting to 18-20 and adds UConn. Or the ACC, in fear of this, tries to lock up the northeast, and finally grabs UConn. The problem for over half the teams in the Big12 is that they come with strings attached. Depending on where OU and Texas land can impact a ton. For UConn, its far more clear: The B1G or ACC.

 

[Exit 4]

I think we are already very close to be locked out of p5 forever. Especially if the world remains stable for another 5 years.

I'd take my chances in a world w/o the b12 conference with OU, UT and possibly KS safely finding new homes because i) the land of misfit toys will be much more interesting to play in (better teams), ii) I think the P4 would find that its smallness is a little boring - too pro-like and iii) the P4 coverage map will have holes in it that maybe more obvious under a P4 landscape.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Ironically, I think there is only one other P5 league that would take Texas: the ACC. The SEC, Pac 12 and Big 10 would not tolerate Texas' shenanigans, and the Pac 12 has already passed on the longhorns once and doesn't seem to regret the decision. This might be why Texas is somewhat flexible about making the Big 12 work.

Even if you think UConn has no chance at getting in the Big 12, why would you want 10 other major programs scrambling for invitations to the surviving 4 leagues? That is just crazy. How did the contraction of 6 to 5 major conferences work out for UConn? Does anyone think the contraction from 5 to 4 will be any better?

 

[CallMeBruce]

Ironically, I think there is only one other P5 league that would take Texas: the ACC. The SEC, Pac 12 and Big 10 would not tolerate Texas' shenanigans, and the Pac 12 has already passed on the longhorns once and doesn't seem to regret the decision. This might be why Texas is somewhat flexible about making the Big 12 work.

Even if you think UConn has no chance at getting in the Big 12, why would you want 10 other major programs scrambling for invitations to the surviving 4 leagues? That is just crazy. How did the contraction of 6 to 5 major conferences work out for UConn? Does anyone think the contraction from 5 to 4 will be any better?

How is it going to be worse that what we already have? Worst-case scenario, we end up with a couple of Big 12 leftovers joining the AAC, and the league gets a little stronger. Best-case, the remaining power conferences want to go to 16 teams, and we get one of the newly opened spots.