BIG 12 Conference race: which outcome helps stoke further realignment?

[Macho Grande]

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/co...ittle-hope-for-tcu-big-12-in-playoff-race.ece

Seems to me that a scenario in which the Big 12 is left out of the CFP, but arguably could have improved their chances with a conference championship game would be a great way to kindle the realignment fires. If the BIG 12 misses out, and starts looking at a championship game, it could start another round of additions. Even the threat by the Big 12 of adding UCONN could be enough to spur the B1G or ACC to add teams reactively...

But it can't be just rooting for the top Big 12 teams to lose -- because if they fall too much out, then a conference championship game would still be meaningless. It needs to be figuring out the right set of dominos to fall so that the Big12 champion is number 5 or 6, and left in the cold....

Now I just need to figure out who to root for each week as this plays out....

 

[whaler11]

You'd want TCU, Baylor, Mississippi State (or UGa, Ole Miss, Auburn or Bama), Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State, Notre Dame to win out.

Two teams in the top 6 or 7 of AP poll at 11-1 and no playoff bid.

 

[SubbaBub]

You'd want TCU, Baylor, Mississippi State (or UGa, Ole Miss, Auburn or Bama), Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State, Notre Dame to win out.

Two teams in the top 6 or 7 of AP poll at 11-1 and no playoff bid.

In order:
Any 1 - loss non divisional SEC champ that kicks out a 1 - loss conference champ will push the playoff to 8 real quick. I'd hope for 3 SEC teams, but I can't see the committee being that one sided.

Notre Dame, also pushes it toward 8 teams and conference Champs only, but not as much as the previous scenario.

I don't think a particular B12 team affects things whether its, TCU, Baylor, or KState. If any get passed over as a 1-loss conference champ, it pushes the B12 to pump up their FB roster only if they don't add a CCG, which would make a much bigger splash with future committees. If they need 12 teams, (which they won't with the new autonomy) then they look at FSU and Clemson before Cincy or anyone else. Bigger TV deal wins the ACC/B12 war.

I think Baylor winning some weird 3 way tie break and getting the spot would have the other conferences push the CCG requirement unleashing realignment but I don't know if they really want that box opened. The ACC certainly doesn't.

If MSU or OSU is left out, the B1G will do whatever it thinks necessary to prevent that from happening again. I have no idea what that would look like.

Any effect on UConn would be tertiary.

 

[businesslawyer]

As painful as many would find it, root for ND to take one of the four sports. The Power 5 won't let that happen again. Maybe they go to 8, but maybe they require you to be a conference champion to get in.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

In order:
Any 1 - loss non divisional SEC champ that kicks out a 1 - loss conference champ will push the playoff to 8 real quick. I'd hope for 3 SEC teams, but I can't see the committee being that one sided.

Notre Dame, also pushes it toward 8 teams and conference Champs only, but not as much as the previous scenario.

I don't think a particular B12 team affects things whether its, TCU, Baylor, or KState. If any get passed over as a 1-loss conference champ, it pushes the B12 to pump up their FB roster only if they don't add a CCG, which would make a much bigger splash with future committees. If they need 12 teams, (which they won't with the new autonomy) then they look at FSU and Clemson before Cincy or anyone else. Bigger TV deal wins the ACC/B12 war.

I think Baylor winning some weird 3 way tie break and getting the spot would have the other conferences push the CCG requirement unleashing realignment but I don't know if they really want that box opened. The ACC certainly doesn't.

If MSU or OSU is left out, the B1G will do whatever it thinks necessary to prevent that from happening again. I have no idea what that would look like.

Any effect on UConn would be tertiary.

How about this? FSU runs the table and gets a slot as the undefeated ACC champ. ND runs the table and gets a slot with 1 loss, which happens to be a away loss and a questionable loss at that to FSU. In the SEC West, 2 teams have 1 loss, which allows either Ole Miss or Miss St to get into the title game over Auburn or Alabama based on head-to head results. From the SEC East, UGA loses to Auburn during the regular season; but, still goes to the SEC title game with 2 losses and they win beating Ole Miss or Miss St. Thus, UGA is in for winning the SEC title. But, due to the SEC's strength, actual or perceived, a 1 loss Alabama or Auburn team, though they did not even play int he SEC title game, gets the 4th playoff spot over one or more 1 loss teams from the XII and the PAC. That will not go over well with anyone and will hasten the move to 8 teams in the playoff and/or expansion of the XII top 12 teams to get a championship game.

 

[whaler11]

In order:
Any 1 - loss non divisional SEC champ that kicks out a 1 - loss conference champ will push the playoff to 8 real quick. I'd hope for 3 SEC teams, but I can't see the committee being that one sided.

Notre Dame, also pushes it toward 8 teams and conference Champs only, but not as much as the previous scenario.

I don't think a particular B12 team affects things whether its, TCU, Baylor, or KState. If any get passed over as a 1-loss conference champ, it pushes the B12 to pump up their FB roster only if they don't add a CCG, which would make a much bigger splash with future committees. If they need 12 teams, (which they won't with the new autonomy) then they look at FSU and Clemson before Cincy or anyone else. Bigger TV deal wins the ACC/B12 war.

I think Baylor winning some weird 3 way tie break and getting the spot would have the other conferences push the CCG requirement unleashing realignment but I don't know if they really want that box opened. The ACC certainly doesn't.

If MSU or OSU is left out, the B1G will do whatever it thinks necessary to prevent that from happening again. I have no idea what that would look like.

Any effect on UConn would be tertiary.

Because KSU still plays both I picked TCU and Baylor so they could have 2 1 loss teams left out rather than 1.

 

[businesslawyer]

As painful as many would find it, root for ND to take one of the four sports. The Power 5 won't let that happen again. Maybe they go to 8, but maybe they require you to be a conference champion to get in.

Someone want to explain to me how the photo on the left that (I believe) Jimmy Serrano uses now shows up when I make a post? Does that mean I've been hacked?

 

[Vowelguy]

Cuts both ways. A shoo-in for the playoffs could get upset in its conference championship, causing the B12 schools to say "see? a championship game can hurt a team that was the best throughout the year."

 

[Dooley]

3 out of 4 spots going to the SEC might also stoke some conference expansion discussion. 2 non-conference winning from one conference would ruffle some feathers the wrong way in certain proud football places...some of whom might be winners of their own conference.

I think the more likely "fix" will be to expand the field from 4 to 8 with some sort of BCS-esque conference tie-in written in. Conference winners from all 5 Power conferences and 3 at-large bids, including 1 potential G5 participant (although this will NEVER happen because most at-large bids will likely go to SEC schools). I'm not sure if this will lead to further expansion or not since the B12 champion, no matter how they declare it, will gain access in this hypothetical scenario.

Expansion will happen only when conferences think that added games would make them more money while increasing the quality of their competition. I honestly have no idea how/why some sort of combo of Cincinnati/UCF/BYU wouldn't add value to both the B12's bottom line and the quality of conference competition. Solid programs in good recruiting areas (well, FL and OH are good) in decent sized markets.

I am not sure how UCONN can escape the AAC. I think our escape pod will show up in Connecticut once UCONN can raise its endowment (donate! donate! donate!), has finished its research expansion projects and given it time to bear fruit, and our football program shows a pulse.

 

[Vowelguy]

3 out of 4 spots going to the SEC might also stoke some conference expansion discussion.

Not going to happen.

 

[Macho Grande]

Yeah -- some great opinions -- I really don't care about an 8 team playoff, so I don't want ND to win. My thought was trying to predict the scenario in which a championship game in the BIG 12 could be looked at as "the thing that would have given our Big 12 champion one more big win in the quest to make it into the CFP" Since the Big 12 is the only conference that doesn't have 14 teams, they are the ones that are the most likely to look to expand. I don't really want to go to the Big 12, but I would want UCONN to flirt with the Big 12, hopefully disrupting the status quo, and possibly forcing ACC or Big 10 to play their hand an extend an invite.

Seems like we need K State to lose one of the unranked Big 12 teams, and then beat TCU, WVU, Baylor -- that create a bunch of 7-12 ranked teams that need "another big win".

I know, I know.... a lot of conjecture -- but it makes the Big 12 conference race a little interesting for me -- otherwise I could care less.... And to me -- the the BIG 12 is the one conference that can kickstart realignment without tripwiring the Grant of Rights issues....

 

[metsfan2323]

Yeah -- some great opinions -- I really don't care about an 8 team playoff, so I don't want ND to win. My thought was trying to predict the scenario in which a championship game in the BIG 12 could be looked at as "the thing that would have given our Big 12 champion one more big win in the quest to make it into the CFP" Since the Big 12 is the only conference that doesn't have 14 teams, they are the ones that are the most likely to look to expand. I don't really want to go to the Big 12, but I would want UCONN to flirt with the Big 12, hopefully disrupting the status quo, and possibly forcing ACC or Big 10 to play their hand an extend an invite.

Seems like we need K State to lose one of the unranked Big 12 teams, and then beat TCU, WVU, Baylor -- that create a bunch of 7-12 ranked teams that need "another big win".

I know, I know.... a lot of conjecture -- but it makes the Big 12 conference race a little interesting for me -- otherwise I could care less.... And to me -- the the BIG 12 is the one conference that can kickstart realignment without tripwiring the Grant of Rights issues....

You make a good point, I guess we should root for the B12 to be denied a bid. Hopefully UCONN's realignment team is pitching the B12 hard.

If the B12 takes UCONN they could make a claim as the best Men's and Women's basketball conference in the country. Offer the B12 one game at Yankee stadium per year for the first 10 years or so but do whatever it takes to get that bid. The B12 already has enough power football teams, they don't need any more and there aren't any great football teams to be had anyway. They need another hoops power.

Also a move to 8 would fuel further expansion because they would probably want to give auto bids to the conference championship game winners thus forcing the B12 to expand and maybe even forcing ND to join a league.

BTW beating UCF Saturday would help.

 

[whaler11]

I think it's just as likely the lack of a championship game helps the Big 12 this year.

We'll know more later but if the 1 loss Big 12 teams are ranked in the playoff poll like they are in the AP poll if one of them wins out, I think they end up with a bid.

Notre Dame has a huge test at Arizona State and still have Louisville and @USC. Tough to see them running the table.

I can't see a 2 loss non-SEC champ team with a bid over a non-ACC 1 loss team.

A 1 loss non-Oregon Pac 12 winner would have to leapfrog the Big 12 teams.

I think if a Big 12 team wins out they get in. I don't even think they end up the 4 seed if they win out.

The more I look at it Notre Dame holds the keys for the Big 12. Unless they run the table I think the Big 12 gets a bid if one of them wins out.

To ensure the a 1 loss Big 12 gets locked out you probably need 3 out of Notre Dame, Oregon, Mich St/Ohio St and Florida State to win out.

Arizona/Arizona St/Utah/Nebraska might be options to those teams but they are all extrememly long shots to win out.

Looking at the schedules I'd be surprised in the Big 12 had an 11-1 team anyway.

 

[buddy]

You make a good point, I guess we should root for the B12 to be denied a bid. Hopefully UCONN's realignment team is pitching the B12 hard.

If the B12 takes UCONN they could make a claim as the best Men's and Women's basketball conference in the country. Offer the B12 one game at Yankee stadium per year for the first 10 years or so but do whatever it takes to get that bid. The B12 already has enough power football teams, they don't need any more and there aren't any great football teams to be had anyway. They need another hoops power.

Also a move to 8 would fuel further expansion because they would probably want to give auto bids to the conference championship game winners thus forcing the B12 to expand and maybe even forcing ND to join a league.

BTW beating UCF Saturday would help.

This weeks UCF game will make no difference in CR. Remember UConn defeated Louisville and the next week Louisville got the ACC invite. Politics and lobbying by administrators and other politicians might help, but winning this game probably won't matter, although it would be nice.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The only impact on UConn of any of this will be the Big12's and Pac 12's realization that 9 game conference schedules are bad for teams' playoff bids, particularly if both the Big 12 and Pac 12 get boxed out of the playoffs this year. The only way to claim your conference is better is to actually beat teams from other conferences. 9 came conference schedules do exactly no good in that regard. Fewer conference games, plus fewer games against FCS opponents, which several conferences have already announced, will mean better scheduling for UConn since all those games will not go to other P5 schools.

 

[Calamitous]

Seems to me that a scenario in which the Big 12 is left out of the CFP, but arguably could have improved their chances with a conference championship game would be a great way to kindle the realignment fires.

If UConn received a Big XII invite, who would you want as the twelfth partner? Cincinnati, UCF, ECU or some other?

 

[Adios]

If UConn received a Big XII invite, who would you want as the twelfth partner? Cincinnati, UCF, ECU or some other?

They'd probably expand by more than just 2 schools. WVU is proving the move eastward is not a bad idea.

 

[Fishy]

1) The Big 12 probably won't have a playoff rep this year because they simply do not have a top four team in conference. That isn't a reason to expand.

2) The Big 12 is not expanding.

3) When they do, I don't see how the state of Connecticut fits into any kind of footprint.

 

[ThetaZoo]

1) The Big 12 probably won't have a playoff rep this year because they simply do not have a top four team in conference. That isn't a reason to expand.

2) The Big 12 is not expanding.

3) When they do, I don't see how the state of Connecticut fits into any kind of footprint.

Here I was hopeful again that UConn had a chance for salvation and you come along and insert logic into the discussion. I think I'll take a hammer to my testiculos.

 

[SubbaBub]

If UConn received a Big XII invite, who would you want as the twelfth partner? Cincinnati, UCF, ECU or some other?

Whatever two schools gets us an invite to the Big Ten or the ACC.

 

[metsfan2323]

1) The Big 12 probably won't have a playoff rep this year because they simply do not have a top four team in conference. That isn't a reason to expand.

2) The Big 12 is not expanding.

3) When they do, I don't see how the state of Connecticut fits into any kind of footprint.

You are correct, they won't make the playoffs, but that is the point....they might conclude that having a championship game would have helped them get a spot. They might conclude that they aren't playing with a full deck.

It is presumed that they would expand eastward to help WVU, Cincy is one team, you pick the other.

 

[CL82]

You are correct, they won't make the playoffs, but that is the point....they might conclude that having a championship game would have helped them get a spot. They might conclude that they aren't playing with a full deck.

It is presumed that they would expand eastward to help WVU, Cincy is one team, you pick the other.

UCF.

 

[Kolumbo]

1) The Big 12 probably won't have a playoff rep this year because they simply do not have a top four team in conference. That isn't a reason to expand.

2) The Big 12 is not expanding.

3) When they do, I don't see how the state of Connecticut fits into any kind of footprint.

You and your logic. Conn is like the big toe nail clipping that sailed off north-eastward from the foot.