B1G Recruiting impacted by Eastward Expansion

[Drew]

All right. Good talk, see you out there.

And for what it's worth, I do think that Connecticut - located halfway in between two of the top 10 DMA's in the country and the flagship university of a state that is home to 3.5 million people who enjoy the 4th highest media income per resident in the country is more valuable than any university in a state that splits it's allegiances 3 or 4 different ways and is home to 3 times as many people who enjoy minimum wage jobs (NC is 39th in the nation in median income).

As for "my population predictions" they are based on the fact that red states refuse to spend money on infrastructure projects or invest in public education. It's desirable for companies to relocate there now because of loose labor laws and the fact that they're throwing tax breaks at them like confetti, but in a decade when their trucks can't get out of the factory because of a collapsed interstate and their children aren't qualified to do anything but pump gas, the midwest and northeast , who continue to invest in these items is going to look very attractive.

If you think the B1G is interested in adding teams based solely on what things look like today you are not paying attention. The B1G has never made an expansion move hastily. Every team they have added since Penn State was done either to bolster their football strength (Penn State/Nebraska) or break into a critical DMA (RU and Maryland).

So tell me, what is so attractive to the B1G in North Carolina? A couple of 6-6 football teams playing in front of 40,000 people who probably won't even be able to afford their network in the 25th ranked DMA?

This is wrong on so many accounts. At risk of this conversation turning into a North/South conversation and completely veering away from the OP I'll just say that the state of North Carolina is a much more valuable state for a conference (especially with a network) than the state of Connecticut. Raleigh/Durham and Charlotte are both strong NC markets and then you also have places like Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Wilmington, and Asheville/Boone. The state has 10 million people in it- most of which care greatly about the development of high school prospects and football. Look at the stadiums that are at 90%+ capacity every week:

UNC
NC State
Duke (for years though they had zero football draw- Cutcliffe has changed that)
ECU
Charlotte
App State

The state of CT has a lot of positives in it. I'm extremely happy I went to school at UConn. But to say that the state of CT is more valuable in CR than the state of NC is just biased and uneducated. While cities like Raleigh and Charlotte are adding not just population, but also millennials at a high rate. CT is a pro sports state for the most part, and while UConn definitely has the support of the state government that doesn't mean that it is more valuable as a state than NC to a prospective conference.

 

[NYUConn]

Good grief.

The University of North Carolina is one of the five best public universities in the nation.

The University of North Carolina is one of the three biggest programs
in college basketball history.

The University of North Carolina isn't attached to the Triangle DMA. Their fan base spans the entire state and in basketball the entire nation.

North Carolina already has ~3 times the population of Connecticut and the gap is growing.

On football signing day in 2015, North Carolina alone had 83 kids sign letters of intent, New York and New England had 60 combined. BTW, Georgia had... 248 - maybe that will help y'all wrap your heads around why Georgia Tech is at the top of the Big Ten list.

You are living in an absolute fantasy land. Conference Realignment is going to be determined by schools like UNC. If they called the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten tomorrow asking to join, there would be a press conference welcoming them on Friday. If they called the PAC 12 - they would spend the weekend trying to figure out how to make it work and on Monday they would say F it and welcome them.

I know PJ has some type of PTSD that leads him to nonsense. Your ignorance of reality is aggressive.

All right take it easy, Trump. Just because we have a difference of opinion in what constitutes value doesn't mean either of us are ignoring reality.

I understand what you're saying and I respect it, but I think that you are taking the current demographic and athletic state of play as some sort of absolute that will never change and that's just not the case.

 

[whaler11]

All right take it easy, Trump. Just because we have a difference of opinion in what constitutes value doesn't mean either of us are ignoring reality.

I understand what you're saying and I respect it, but I think that you are taking the current demographic and athletic state of play as some sort of absolute that will never change and that's just not the case.

It's really not a difference of opinion.

UNC as a college athletic property is much more valuable than UConn.

You would not find a single intellegent unbiased person who would argue that. If UConn was as valuable as North Carolina they would spend three years in the AAC with no end in sight?

Things change for sure, you are choosing to ignore which way the momentum is pointing.

 

[NYUConn]

This is wrong on so many accounts. At risk of this conversation turning into a North/South conversation and completely veering away from the OP I'll just say that the state of North Carolina is a much more valuable state for a conference (especially with a network) than the state of Connecticut. Raleigh/Durham and Charlotte are both strong NC markets and then you also have places like Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Wilmington, and Asheville/Boone. The state has 10 million people in it- most of which care greatly about the development of high school prospects and football. Look at the stadiums that are at 90%+ capacity every week:

UNC
NC State
Duke (for years though they had zero football draw- Cutcliffe has changed that)
ECU
Charlotte
App State

The state of CT has a lot of positives in it. I'm extremely happy I went to school at UConn. But to say that the state of CT is more valuable in CR than the state of NC is just biased and uneducated. While cities like Raleigh and Charlotte are adding not just population, but also millennials at a high rate. CT is a pro sports state for the most part, and while UConn definitely has the support of the state government that doesn't mean that it is more valuable as a state than NC to a prospective conference.

You're right let's stay away from the North-South thing. That's a conversation for another day.

I get what you're saying, but I think that what you see as a positive RE: all the programs at 90% capacity is actually a negative in terms of dilution of product. If the B1G added UNC they'd be adding a sizable audience, but also conceding market share to the ACC and the rest of tobacco road.

I'm a realist. I understand that the perception today is that any conference that could pry UNC away from the ACC would be getting a goldmine.

But I also understand the value of a school like UConn who - despite recent lapse in on-the-field product - has put together recent gridiron success and owns not only 3.5 million CT fans but another million in Rhode Island eastern NY State. Not to mention a ton of alumni and fans in NYC and Boston, two of the top seven DMA's in the country.

It's a school that's expanding it's athletic department and making major investments in academics.

So the logical question is, if that's the case then why are we in the AAC? I honestly believe it's because our football team has been utter garbage and the musical chairs have simply stopped for the moment.

 

[NYUConn]

It's really not a difference of opinion.

UNC as a college athletic property is much more valuable than UConn.

You would not find a single intellegent unbiased person who would argue that. If UConn was as valuable as North Carolina they would spend three years in the AAC with no end in sight?

Things change for sure, you are choosing to ignore which way the momentum is pointing.

It's late and I've enjoyed discussing this with you guys. I understand the points you've made and I don't dismiss them out of hand.

However, I believe that UConn has put together superior athletics over the last decade and combined with the investment our state has made in both academics and our athletics, that the momentum does not all belong to UNC.

G'night, guys. Go Huskies.

 

[CAHUSKY]

If the B1G added UNC they'd be adding a sizable audience, but also conceding market share to the ACC and the rest of tobacco road.

Conceding market share? They would be taking it with them to the B1G. They the most valuable asset in the ACC and have exponentially more fans than anyone on Tobacco road.

 

[billybud]

Three easy reasons.

Demographics, weather and culture.

They are growing faster than the Northeast. So the fact the NE is bigger and is so far behind is a bad sign not a good sign.

There is a simple reason why MLB is dominated by players from CA, Florida and the broader south. They can play all year.

If you spend two seconds in the south the culture is obvious. Sports, especially at the high school level are at a much higher level of importance in places like Georgia. Also, they have 2 seasons - football and off season football. Georgia and NC high schools don't lose athletes to soccer or basketball.

The premise that football recruits will ever be the same quality and in the same quantity in the Northeast as the Southeastern US is absurd on it's face - nevermind after giving it some thought.

I think that is a little bit of a simplification. North Carolina kids are basketball oriented as much as football if not more so...UNC can recruit from anywhere yet half of their roster is from North Carolina. Soccer is also fairly big in North Carolina. at the prep level, as it is on the east coast from North Carolina through Maryland into Connecticut. Four of the last eight men's soccer NC's were won by North Carolina or Virginia teams.

Georgia is another story...football, football, football.

While North Carolina has some good football recruits, their sports culture is different than the culture of the deep south states of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi...and North Florida. Some of the tension in the ACC between Clemson, FSU and North Carolina is sports culture based....basketball first versus football first.

 

[CL82]

And for what it's worth, I do think that Connecticut - located halfway in between two of the top 10 DMA's in the country and the flagship university of a state that is home to 3.5 million people who enjoy the 4th highest media income per resident in the country is more valuable than any university in a state that splits it's allegiances 3 or 4 different ways and is home to 3 times as many people who enjoy minimum wage jobs (NC is 39th in the nation in median income).

This.

(Add that that chunk of land between NY an Mass also happens to own the 31st (I think) largest DMA, plus another million in the NYC DMA.

 

[Sky ball]

Geez if UConn were a valuable property we would be in the ACC or BiG right now. We are not so we are not. ~ Sorry Debbie Downer

 

[CallMeBruce]

Geez if UConn were a valuable property we would be in the ACC or BiG right now. We are not so we are not. ~ Sorry Debbie Downer

Did something dramatically change at Rutgers, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh in between when they were in the Big East and when they were invited to new leagues? No? Then stop repeating this tired-ass line.

 

[FDNY99]

Geez if UConn were a valuable property we would be in the ACC or BiG right now. We are not so we are not. ~ Sorry Debbie Downer

Everyone on this site knows why UCONN isn't in the ACC...lawsuit/Blumenthal...BC bitching about being only NE program so they added Pitt...Clemson and FSU pulling powerplay for football...and in-between the 2 Hathaway doing NOTHING and then doing less by hiring Pasqualoni. The B1G is conjecture and rumor...that's about it. Valuable property had nothing to do with not getting into the ACC the first 2 times around!

 

[whaler11]

Geez if UConn were a valuable property we would be in the ACC or BiG right now. We are not so we are not. ~ Sorry Debbie Downer

Saying that UConn isn't valuable as other specific schools =\= UConn isn't valuable.

But yeah if UConn was one of the 5 or 10 or 20 most valuable properties in college sports they wouldn't be in the AAC.