I've seen internal memos from the AAU saying that they are indeed looking to contract.
AAU offices are on K Street in Washington DC. They lobby congress to provide more research dollars through the national foundations and the military. Over time, AAU schools have grabbed 50% of all federal research dollars. With research money way way down after 2008, the org suddenly got the idea that it should contract. Kind of the same damn thing going on with the BCS schools. So, yes, they are looking to kick out more schools, and UConn is still behind research-wise of the bottom schools.