AAC Tournament Bracket

[tcf15]

2/23 UPDATE - no changes really

Remaining schedule for each AAC team:

Cincinnati: UCF, @Tulane, @Tulsa, Memphis
Connecticut: @East Carolina, SMU, Memphis, @Temple
East Carolina: UConn, @UCF, Temple, @Houston
Houston: @Temple, USF, @Tulane, East Carolina
Memphis: SMU, Tulsa, @Uconn, @Cincinnati
SMU: @Memphis, @Uconn, Tulsa
Temple: Houston, @East Carolina, UConn
Tulane: @Tulsa, Cincinnati, Houston, @USF
Tulsa: Tulane, @Memphis, Cincinnati, @SMU
UCF: @Cincinnati, East Carolina, @USF
USF: @Houston, UCF, Tulane

 

[WillB4]

Dougie last nite had a good argument for staying in fifth place. your are playing at home, play two lesser teams, then possibly meet SMU.

 

[gtcam]

Dougie last nite had a good argument for staying in fifth place. your are playing at home, play two lesser teams, then possibly meet SMU.

He said it would be best to stay in the 6th position and avoid SMU until the final

 

[tcf15]

Dougie last nite had a good argument for staying in fifth place. your are playing at home, play two lesser teams, then possibly meet SMU.

He said it would be best to stay in the 6th position and avoid SMU until the final

Yeah, right now, 6th place would give us Houston, Temple (who just lost @Tulsa by 16), then either Tulane, USF or Tulsa before getting to the championship. I wouldn't mind that.

 

[Edward Sargent]

But Temple took us at home

 

[tcf15]

But Temple took us at home

They did, but Ryan Boatright was injured and didn't play at all in either the 2nd half or overtime. We took them to overtime without our best player. That's the main reason for my optimism in getting to play Temple at the XL Center again in the tourney.

 

[selles]

Yeah, right now, 6th place would give us Houston, Temple (who just lost @Tulsa by 16), then either Tulane, USF or Tulsa before getting to the championship. I wouldn't mind that.

Plus Cincy (which swept SMU) on the other side of the bracket poised to take out the Mustangs. Too bad we can't freeze it now, that really would be a perfect setup. A lot of games between the top 6 to go though.

 

[UConnPuneet]

Memphis could very easily lose out. I think 5 is still our more likely end result. Which might mean we still get Temple as the 4 (Cincy will probably pass or tie them and Cincy has tiebreaker) but wouldn't get to avoid SMU.

 

[4in16]

Not saying this will happen but it's not entirely impossible to get the 3 seed if they won out. Not sure what the tie breakers are but it's still possible.

 

[UConnPuneet]

Not saying this will happen but it's not entirely impossible to get the 3 seed if they won out. Not sure what the tie breakers are but it's still possible.

If we won out and were tied with any of the other 3 at 12-6, we'd lose to Cincy (worse W-L vs SMU), lose to Memphis (worse W-L vs Cincy), and beat Temple (better W-L vs either SMU or Tulsa).

Basically we would need to win out, have Cincy lose two, and Memphis lose one other (besides their 3/5 loss to us). Ran the numbers real quick using Pomeroy's current WP and there's about a 3.3% chance of that happening.

 

[Leebo]

The meat of the difficulty in those odds is us winning out. If we do that, it's actually quite likely Memphis will lose at least one other game, and there's a decent chance Cincy loses two.

 

[Jerry1714]

If we won out and were tied with any of the other 3 at 12-6, we'd lose to Cincy (worse W-L vs SMU), lose to Memphis (worse W-L vs Cincy), and beat Temple (better W-L vs either SMU or Tulsa).

Basically we would need to win out, have Cincy lose two, and Memphis lose one other (besides their 3/5 loss to us). Ran the numbers real quick using Pomeroy's current WP and there's about a 3.3% chance of that happening.

Memphis could easily finish 0-4

 

[UofMemphis]

Memphis could easily finish 0-4

SMU
Tulsa
@Uconn
@Cincy

it will be interesting to see how we finish...I'll guess 1-3

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Let's take care of business @ECU before worrying about anything else

 

[storrsroars]

I'm thinking we go 2-2, Memphis goes 1-3 (losing to UConn), both finishing at 10-8. We win tiebreaker and take 5th.

Thus, KO might want to tank the Memphis game

 

[CTBasketball]

If we play good we can win out. SMU is good, but we can beat them if Brimah stays on the floor and we take care of the ball.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Memphis could very easily lose out. I think 5 is still our more likely end result. Which might mean we still get Temple as the 4 (Cincy will probably pass or tie them and Cincy has tiebreaker) but wouldn't get to avoid SMU.

The best possible scenario I think would be to get the 4 or 5 seed and then hope Tulsa overtakes SMU for the 1 seed. They have a tough final 3 games, but SMU also has a tough final 3.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

The best possible scenario I think would be to get the 4 or 5 seed and then hope Tulsa overtakes SMU for the 1 seed. They have a tough final 3 games, but SMU also has a tough final 3.

Best but not most realistic right????

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I'm thinking we go 2-2, Memphis goes 1-3 (losing to UConn), both finishing at 10-8. We win tiebreaker and take 5th.

Thus, KO might want to tank the Memphis game

lol...maybe. It won't happen though.

 

[tcf15]

2/26 Update: Biggest change was Temple & Cinci switching seeds.

Remaining schedule for the top 6:

SMU: @ Memphis, @ UConn, Tulsa
Tulsa: @ Memphis, Cincinnati, @ SMU
Cincinnati: @ Tulane, @ Tulsa, Memphis
Temple: Houston, @ East Carolina, UConn
Memphis: SMU, Tulsa, @ UConn, @ Cincinnati
Connecticut: SMU, Memphis, @ Temple

 

[auror]

We officially can't fall below 6th or get either of the top 2 seeds.

 

[Leebo]

I don't think I care at this point what happens at 5th place or above. We just have to get there. Facing Houston hurts our RPI even if we win that game.

 

[CTBasketball]

I don't think I care at this point what happens at 5th place or above. We just have to get there. Facing Houston hurts our RPI even if we win that game.

RPI doesn't matter at this point. We need to win the AACT.

 

[John]

2/26 Update: Biggest change was Temple & Cinci switching seeds.

View attachment 8605

imagine if just 5 years ago if someone had shown us this graphic. We would have called them crazy. Sweet Jesus.

 

[Leebo]

RPI doesn't matter at this point. We need to win the AACT.

There are scenarios where we reach the championship game and lose while finishing with a top 50 RPI. But only if we don't face Houston.

Want to keep all options open.