A week out, has the Big 12 decided yet what it wants to do?

[BlueDogs]

CFB is on life support? Viewership is down? You did see how much these conferences are making in their media deals, right? Or do you just not think before posting?

Do you understand basic facts? ESPN is shedding overhead and cutting costs. Overall viewership is falling. It's not about what has been negotiated. It's about what will be. The big12 will be torn apart, the number of teams receiving big payouts will fall, and there will be the haves and perpetual have nots. The demographics are getting more challenged with Millennials who don't watch team sports as much. Not rocket science, just basic logic. But it requires looking farther than the end of your nose.

 

[Rocktheworld]

But it requires looking farther than the end of your nose.

Oh like the television networks who signed deals going in to the back half of the 2020s? You think they made it past the ends of their noses? Since when is ESPN the sole indicator of how an entire market is going?

 

[whaler11]

Oh like the television networks who signed deals going in to the back half of the 2020s? You think they made it past the ends of their noses? Since when is ESPN the sole indicator of how an entire market is going?

Well ESPN's health drives the entire industry.

Ratings are far from life support - but there are some pretty negative indicators.

Affiliate fees for cable networks exhibit a clear downward trend. It's still the best mousetrap anyone has built to date.

It wasn't an accident that Disney invested a billion dollars into MBLAM streaming technology.

We may actually enter a period of a few years where the cable carriers are actually willing to compete on price. They are going to be in a position where they fight for every sub.

The key will be if someone cracks the code on a direct model that generates the revenue to support the current level of payments to conferences.

Personally I don't ever see how they make the math work. I am fairly confident that rights deals even for big properies are going to fall in the medium term (i.e. every deal that comes up from here will be a bloodbath.

There is going to be a lot of drama in about 5 years because P5 conferences are sitting on a bubble.

 

[Eskapeesto]

Anyone here a subscriber to TMG? Just curious to see..

UCONN COULD BE DEALING WITH CATCH 22 SITUATION
The University of Connecticut’s college football future and perhaps athletic future will hit a cross roads on Monday in Dallas when the Big 12 Presidents meet and decide 1. Whether to expand 2. Whether to invite UConn.

If the answer to either or both questions is NO, UConn officials have a decision to make. The problem is that any choice UConn makes looks ominous.

Here are UConn’s options:
UConn could be dealing with Catch 22 situation

 

[huskymedic]

Anyone here a subscriber to TMG? Just curious to see..

UCONN COULD BE DEALING WITH CATCH 22 SITUATION
The University of Connecticut’s college football future and perhaps athletic future will hit a cross roads on Monday in Dallas when the Big 12 Presidents meet and decide 1. Whether to expand 2. Whether to invite UConn.
If the answer to either or both questions is NO, UConn officials have a decision to make. The problem is that any choice UConn makes looks ominous.

Here are UConn’s options:

UConn could be dealing with Catch 22 situation

>>Stay as a full member in the American Athletic Conference. That is the safest move, but the consequences could be severe. Because of money the American received from buyouts from the Catholic 7 schools (paid when they broke from the Big East football/basketball conference), UConn’s television led revenues are close to $10 million this year. But that Big East money is now gone. Projections over the next few years have the payouts shrinking to $3 million a year, a number which UConn, with its 71 million dollar a year budget, can not tolerate.

Ask the American to allow UConn to move to the Big East in all sports but football. This is not likely to happen since there is almost no value in UConn for the American without football.

Leave the American, join the Big East in all sports but football and become part of the Mid-American Conference in football. It could work, but here’s the snag. Leaving the AAC, which has an exit fee charge of $1o million dollars AND requires 27 months of notice, will not be cheap. No one expects a 27 month “lame duck” situation, so UConn will be able to leave almost immediately, but then it will cost more than $10 million. If UConn were joining a Power 5 conference such as the Big 12, which had a payout of $30 million for each school, it could afford the buyout. Even joining as a football only member, would bring in enough money to offset the buyout. But neither the Mac nor the Big East combined could generate a $10 million plus cost.

If UConn is shut out from the Big 12, its safest financial move for the time being will be to do nothing and see what the college landscape is in the next couple of years. But unless the Big 12 extends an invitation, UConn is on the horns of a dilemma.<<