2015 final 4 -- what teams?

[tomcat]

I agree with the person who said that absent injuries, UConn is a couple of steps ahead of the field.I don't think there's any question at all that ND makes it to the Final Four. The only question is how good they will be with their young players before the end of the season. There are a number of other teams that can fill the other two spots, but I'm thinking SC and TN right now, on the assumption that heir young players develop. But as everyone knows, Cinderella teams come along, and this just might be the year fr that to happen.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Sorry, El Gris, this is one of the 2 major reasons I'm excited to see how this season plays out:

Per-40-minutes statistics:

Stat Steph/Kiah
ORB 2.60/4.98
DRB 8.88/10.40
TRB 11.41/15.38
Blk 2.88/4.92

Kiah is a better rebounder and shot-blocker than a very good rebounder and shot-blocker. And I think she has the strength & stamina to produce those kind of numbers for however many minutes Geno plays her. With all the inside opportunities Kiah should get, I'm hoping for a bounce in the FT success rate (which still isn't horrible at 69.8%).

Also:
Stat Steph/Kiah
FG% 56.4/60.0
T/O 3.19/1.99 (per 40)

A continuation of the above from Kiah over more minutes, some improvement in FT%, Moriah & Saniya continuing their superb distribution numbers and I think UConn will play a slightly different offensive game (not much different, as Stewie had better assist/TO numbers than Steph) at the same level as last year. Add in Morgan (more excitement for me!) and the talented freshmen and there's no telling how high they could go.

I think that Kiah is a better rebounder than Stef and also a better shot blocker. I don't think the difference is quite as much as those figures suggest because I think Stef's presence enhanced Kiah's numbers but there is a big difference in Kiah's passing versus Stef's (Stef has an appreciable advantage) and a smaller advantage for Stef over Kiah in the scoring department. The scoring advantage may be lessened if Kiah builds some confidence and gets more aggressive offensively. She may even put up scoring numbers equaling or surpassing Stef. My main concern would be on distributing the ball where Stef excelled as very few "bigs" have that I've seen. Hopefully Kiah will be a nice surprise in that area.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I agree with the person who said that absent injuries, UConn is a couple of steps ahead of the field.I don't think there's any question at all that ND makes it to the Final Four. The only question is how good they will be with their young players before the end of the season. There are a number of other teams that can fill the other two spots, but I'm thinking SC and TN right now, on the assumption that heir young players develop. But as everyone knows, Cinderella teams come along, and this just might be the year fr that to happen.

I really don't know why there's such a presumption that Notre Dame will be in the Final Four. They lost two people that were supremely savvy and integral parts of both the offense and defense of Notre Dame. Outside of their junior All-American Jewel Lloyd and Breanna Turner, their big freshman recruit (who may or may not prove to be special), the rest of the lineup doesn't come across as much more than role players. Maybe I'm underestimating them somewhat but I don't recall anyone returning other than Lloyd who has shown herself to be special. You definitely can't say that for UConn where there's potentially three seasoned potential All-Americans in their lineup. That would be Breanna, Moriah and KML. No one on Notre Dame, on the surface, comes close beyond Ms Lloyd. South Carolina is loaded and North Carolina and Tennessee have potential to be Final Four bound. That means Notre Dame may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. JMHO!

 

[Buzzyboy]

One factor to consider with per-40 minute statistics is that Dolson was frequently (if not almost always) putting her numbers up: 1) against the opposition's starters and 2) throughout major minutes, where fatigue can be a factor at the end of games. Stokes had more minutes (than Dolson) against an opposing team's bench players and did not have to play the major minutes that Dolson did, when efficiency may go down a little toward the ends of games.

Remember, Dolson played over 32 minutes per game, most on the UConn squad last year.




Dolson had 135 assists last year. The team's center had 3.38 assists per game. As a comparison point amongst centers, Elizabeth Williams has 175 assists for her career (three years). Natalie Achonwa had 269 assists in four years.

One thing that cannot be measured (at least without advanced metrics) is how the UConn offense flowed with Dolson on the floor and the corresponding adjustments teams had to make. Remember, because Dolson was a threat from outside the paint, teams had face guard her, otherwise she would simply nail 15-17' jumpers all day long. Stokes does not have that consistent range on her shot, meaning teams can sag off of her. This allows a defender to have less room to travel in order to provide help defense at the basket when Moriah Jefferson is driving to the hoop; it allows the defense to bring over a defender more quickly.

Also is Stokes starting set in stone? Why not Tuck?

Natalie Ochonwa really evolved in her last couple of years at Notre Dame. Some of that may have been because of her involvement on the Canadian National Team. Her minutes in her freshman and sophomore years was nowhere near what Stef's were. I'm a big Stef fan and agree with most of your points but felt that Natalie developed later and I wish you had numbers for her last two years where I think you would have seen how much she had developed over her first two years where she was just a marginal player.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Cable, Mabrey (and her sister), Allen, and Loyd are excellent talented players--did you see loyd's stats and play in the NC??--McGraw has done as well recruiting as she did in the past. Her skill is allowing Freshmen to play some minutes and develop. Yet, I doubt most Uconn fans will allow that ND's rating this past year, and characteristics in the past 4 final fours, put them in Uconn's stable??? Winners win, they don't place or show ---no one remembers who came in second (except those who are #2)

The only player that you mentioned that I think ranks as an "excellent talented player" would be Lloyd. The others may evolve but nothing they've done suggests that they are excellent players. That terminology would only apply to players that have shown themselves to be at least potential all league players if not All-American type players. McBride and Anchowna were really big losses because they were huge on both sides of the ball and either they or Lloyd could take over a game at times. I don't see those other players you mentioned there at this time as capable of taking over a game and question whether they will ever get there. Notre Dame is getting good players but outside of Brianna Turner and the afore mentioned Lloyd, is there anyone who you can anoint as special?????

 

[tomcat]

Not necessarily, but don't discount the coach, who is very, very good and capable of getting a lot out of young talent. To a certain extent, this is really, 'If not ND, who?" North Carolina? Oh, please. Stanford, well, maybe, if a lot of maybes pan out by the end of the year. UCLA? Again, maybe. Notre Dame is not a complete polished team, at least at this point, but Im not sure that aside from UConn, anyone else is, either.

 

[tennparker3]

UConn, ND, Texas A&M, Tennessee are my early picks.

Holly will come out from the shadows her disaster filled seasons of elite eight and sweet sixteen teams and finally get this team to a final four. (sarcasm notice)
Texas A&M has a 1,2,3 punch that can match anybody
ND gets the best freshman in Turner (I believe she is better than Wilson) to go along with Loyd, Reimer, Mabrey, and Allen. Westbeld is a smart player who will fit in well.
UConn has Stewart and KML. Could say more but no need to.

Tennessee has a great mix of Senior and Junior leadership this year to mix with young big time talent. Diamond is the second best player in the country (I said it long before I ever believed she would be a LV and it's my opinion, does not have to be yours.) and her talent and the fact that she has an already well noted connection with the team will only help make them better. Jones, Nared, Tucker, and Dunbar in particular will gain great experience going up against her everyday in practice. This is a the third year with this staff and finally point guard depth quality and consistent three point threats are not areas of concern. Offensive structure, as anyone will say, and the changes supposedly being made will make or break the Lady Vols this year.

 

[connboy77]

I doubt it. I think she is a great player. I thought as season wore on she was great for a frosh. Exect everyyear she is a tremendous.

No one is saying that Diamond isn't a great player with a lot of talent, but she is also a me player interested more in her own stats then the team. She also doesn't like to be told what to do. It will be interesting to see what is going to happen the first time the first time the Tennessee coaches say no to her. Maybe I'm wrong and she will buy into the team concept. If that happens Tennessee will be a final four team.

 

[meyers7]

View attachment 6383

most freshman get to much hype, and fans expect them to walk on water. I like the message the video sends

I never figured out what the message was supposed to be.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I really don't know why there's such a presumption that Notre Dame will be in the Final Four. They lost two people that were supremely savvy and integral parts of both the offense and defense of Notre Dame. Outside of their junior All-American Jewel Lloyd and Breanna Turner, their big freshman recruit (who may or may not prove to be special), the rest of the lineup doesn't come across as much more than role players. Maybe I'm underestimating them somewhat but I don't recall anyone returning other than Lloyd who has shown herself to be special. You definitely can't say that for UConn where there's potentially three seasoned potential All-Americans in their lineup. That would be Breanna, Moriah and KML. No one on Notre Dame, on the surface, comes close beyond Ms Lloyd. South Carolina is loaded and North Carolina and Tennessee have potential to be Final Four bound. That means Notre Dame may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. JMHO!

I think there is presumption that ND will be in the FF because the past 2 years the consensus belief was the Notre Dame would take a step back (ranked out of top 5 each year) and then they surprised both times. When Peters, Novosel, and Mallory graduated (leaving only starters Diggins and McBride), ND was still strong. Achonwa really stepped up, Braker came out of no where to become a good, gritty starter, and freshman Loyd took the last starter spot (and won FOY). The next season, ND adapted to life without Diggins by taking an undefeated record into the NC game. Lindsey Allen "replaced" Diggins, and did a great job on offense and defense (considering she was a freshman PG). This year, ND has to replace 3 starters again, but the cupboard seems less bare this year, as Muffet has been recruiting very well these past 3 years. Reimer starts in place of Achonwa. She was no where near as good as Achonwa last season, but her numbers were better than Achonwa's freshman (or sophomore) numbers. Taya will have to develop, but many players make a HUGE leap their sophomore season (see, Stewart, Breanna, Jefferson, Moriah, and Loyd, Jewell). Loyd was a star last year. Allen played very well, and if she makes a sophomore leap, ND will be set at the point. McBride's spot will be filled by a combination of Cable and Mabrey. Michaela really improved her game last season, so she's probably ready to start at this point. The last starter ND has to replace is Braker. Brianna Turner is upgrade when you consider height, jumping ability, and offensive ability. The only things she lacks are Braker's savvy and grit. There will be rough patches starting a freshman, but Muffet has done it the last 2 seasons (Loyd, then Allen), and it's worked out just fine.

The reason why you only see one star at Notre Dame is because 3 starters graduated, leaving only a freshman PG and the aforementioned star (Loyd). Stars need minutes to show their stuff, and I'll bet that another starter or two shines given the opportunity.

 

[reno tony]

I don't think there will be too much pressure on Kiah this season. All she will have to do is defend and block shots up to the foul line. Make outlet passes after her 12 DRB per game. Score the occasional basket after her 6 ORB per game. Maybe make a screen once in a while. UCONN has a stable full of players, including a six guard rotation, that can handle all the passing and scoring they will need to win every game. And, Morgan Tuck, who I think will be an AA this year.

45 TO GO​

 

[rford53]

UConn, ND, Texas A&M, Tennessee are my early picks.

Holly will come out from the shadows her disaster filled seasons of elite eight and sweet sixteen teams and finally get this team to a final four. (sarcasm notice)
Texas A&M has a 1,2,3 punch that can match anybody
ND gets the best freshman in Turner (I believe she is better than Wilson) to go along with Loyd, Reimer, Mabrey, and Allen. Westbeld is a smart player who will fit in well.
UConn has Stewart and KML. Could say more but no need to.

Tennessee has a great mix of Senior and Junior leadership this year to mix with young big time talent. Diamond is the second best player in the country (I said it long before I ever believed she would be a LV and it's my opinion, does not have to be yours.) and her talent and the fact that she has an already well noted connection with the team will only help make them better. Jones, Nared, Tucker, and Dunbar in particular will gain great experience going up against her everyday in practice. This is a the third year with this staff and finally point guard depth quality and consistent three point threats are not areas of concern. Offensive structure, as anyone will say, and the changes supposedly being made will make or break the Lady Vols this year.

You do know Diamond can't play this year, so including her in your evaluation of the lady vols weakens your analysis as it lowers their chances of making the final four!

 

[rford53]

No one is saying that Diamond isn't a great player with a lot of talent, but she is also a me player interested more in her own stats then the team. She also doesn't like to be told what to do. It will be interesting to see what is going to happen the first time the first time the Tennessee coaches say no to her. Maybe I'm wrong and she will buy into the team concept. If that happens Tennessee will be a final four team.

You mean a final four team in 2016? Likely.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I think there is presumption that ND will be in the FF because the past 2 years the consensus belief was the Notre Dame would take a step back (ranked out of top 5 each year) and then they surprised both times. When Peters, Novosel, and Mallory graduated (leaving only starters Diggins and McBride), ND was still strong. Achonwa really stepped up, Braker came out of no where to become a good, gritty starter, and freshman Loyd took the last starter spot (and won FOY). The next season, ND adapted to life without Diggins by taking an undefeated record into the NC game. Lindsey Allen "replaced" Diggins, and did a great job on offense and defense (considering she was a freshman PG). This year, ND has to replace 3 starters again, but the cupboard seems less bare this year, as Muffet has been recruiting very well these past 3 years. Reimer starts in place of Achonwa. She was no where near as good as Achonwa last season, but her numbers were better than Achonwa's freshman (or sophomore) numbers. Taya will have to develop, but many players make a HUGE leap their sophomore season (see, Stewart, Breanna, Jefferson, Moriah, and Loyd, Jewell). Loyd was a star last year. Allen played very well, and if she makes a sophomore leap, ND will be set at the point. McBride's spot will be filled by a combination of Cable and Mabrey. Michaela really improved her game last season, so she's probably ready to start at this point. The last starter ND has to replace is Braker. Brianna Turner is upgrade when you consider height, jumping ability, and offensive ability. The only things she lacks are Braker's savvy and grit. There will be rough patches starting a freshman, but Muffet has done it the last 2 seasons (Loyd, then Allen), and it's worked out just fine.

The reason why you only see one star at Notre Dame is because 3 starters graduated, leaving only a freshman PG and the aforementioned star (Loyd). Stars need minutes to show their stuff, and I'll bet that another starter or two shines given the opportunity.

You may be right. I just think it's a little presumptuous to ASSUME by some, that it will happen. You noted Notre Dame's losses of two years ago and I don't think the talent level of those losses (Peters, Novasel and Mallory) was nearly as severe as the losses they had experienced last year, when I admit I was surprised. Their performance throughout last year was outstanding and as mentioned, a big surprise to me and others. As I said, it could happen that this year Notre Dame may be outstanding but I wouldn't take it for granted that all these kids are going to step it up and be highly successful. UConn has a vaunted recruiting class coming in but I don't think too many people are ready to assume that they will be highly successful. They don't have to be great because of the core of returning players for UConn to be highly successful. Some kids surprise and other kids disappoint because recruiting is an inexact art that could see expected stars never measure up to their expectations. Time will tell!

 

[AnotherVolFan]

You do know Diamond can't play this year, so including her in your evaluation of the lady vols weakens your analysis as it lowers their chances of making the final four!

From the post I think they were referring to Diamond getting to practice with the girls this upcoming season, not play with them......

 

[RadyLady]

I really don't know why there's such a presumption that Notre Dame will be in the Final Four. They lost two people that were supremely savvy and integral parts of both the offense and defense of Notre Dame. Outside of their junior All-American Jewel Lloyd and Breanna Turner, their big freshman recruit (who may or may not prove to be special), the rest of the lineup doesn't come across as much more than role players. Maybe I'm underestimating them somewhat but I don't recall anyone returning other than Lloyd who has shown herself to be special. You definitely can't say that for UConn where there's potentially three seasoned potential All-Americans in their lineup. That would be Breanna, Moriah and KML. No one on Notre Dame, on the surface, comes close beyond Ms Lloyd. South Carolina is loaded and North Carolina and Tennessee have potential to be Final Four bound. That means Notre Dame may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. JMHO!

Heard this all before when SD graduated.

 

[RadyLady]

I am a newbie, but as devoted a Lady Husky/Geno fan as they come. IMHO one thing is certain, even if Morgan is healthy, Uconn cannot continue to have injuries like the past two years at the wrong time and expect to win it all in 2014-15. But if they get by this year, the future is very bright (think about Lou at the 17's, the defense/board work of Boykin and several of the others who may commit + Collier & Butler. In 2015-16, just as a few teams get loaded so will Uconn and Geno puts them over the top.

welcome to the Boneyard!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I don't think there will be too much pressure on Kiah this season. All she will have to do is defend and block shots up to the foul line. Make outlet passes after her 12 DRB per game. Score the occasional basket after her 6 ORB per game.

Oh no pressure. Just predictions of 18 rebounds per game.

 

[RadyLady]

I am pleasedl there is one other Kiah Stokes admirer. I've been a fan since her freshman year---. I think the extended playing times in the last games of 13 and all of 14 have made an attitudinal change for Kiah, nothing like playing time to put a skip in your step. I believe Kiah shall return for the 14/15 year with more offensive skills. She can hit the foul line shot, I'm not a fan of 3 pointers for bigs--let KML and Chong make that their shot (along with some drives).

If you look just a bit harder, you will see that there are a lot more than 2. You are fairly new to the board.

 

[tomcat]

UConn, ND, Texas A&M, Tennessee are my early picks.

Holly will come out from the shadows her disaster filled seasons of elite eight and sweet sixteen teams and finally get this team to a final four. (sarcasm notice)
Texas A&M has a 1,2,3 punch that can match anybody
ND gets the best freshman in Turner (I believe she is better than Wilson) to go along with Loyd, Reimer, Mabrey, and Allen. Westbeld is a smart player who will fit in well.
UConn has Stewart and KML. Could say more but no need to.

Tennessee has a great mix of Senior and Junior leadership this year to mix with young big time talent. Diamond is the second best player in the country (I said it long before I ever believed she would be a LV and it's my opinion, does not have to be yours.) and her talent and the fact that she has an already well noted connection with the team will only help make them better. Jones, Nared, Tucker, and Dunbar in particular will gain great experience going up against her everyday in practice. This is a the third year with this staff and finally point guard depth quality and consistent three point threats are not areas of concern. Offensive structure, as anyone will say, and the changes supposedly being made will make or break the Lady Vols this year.

I picked TN as well, though without the detailed knowledge that a TN fan would have. It just seems to me that after all their troubles and with all this time to develop some good talent, this is the year that TN makes it back to the Final Four.

 

[baggerbob]

Don't like what Muffet did with Stewie last year at the awards, but she is a great coach, and outside of Geno knows how to put the pieces together in TEAM. By the end of the year she will have Notre Dame ready for the run to the final four, can't say that about anyone else.

 

[UConnCat]

\

Tennessee has a great mix of Senior and Junior leadership this year to mix with young big time talent. Diamond is the second best player in the country (I said it long before I ever believed she would be a LV and it's my opinion, does not have to be yours.) and her talent and the fact that she has an already well noted connection with the team will only help make them better. Jones, Nared, Tucker, and Dunbar in particular will gain great experience going up against her everyday in practice. This is a the third year with this staff and finally point guard depth quality and consistent three point threats are not areas of concern. Offensive structure, as anyone will say, and the changes supposedly being made will make or break the Lady Vols this year.

Tennessee lost in the Sweet 16 to Maryland 73-62 and Maryland was then routed by ND 87-61. In the Maryland loss Simmons scored half of Tennessee's points (31) and was the only LV player willing to take the tough shots. Izzy Harrison made 2 shots and scored 7 points. Tennessee's number 1 objective defensively was to stop Alyssa Thomas and she ended the game with 33 points and 13 rebounds. Holly said after the game that the team played scared, something she also said after the tournament loss to Louisville in 2013.

Tennessee has a lot of ground to make up and will be counting on players who have yet to show they can play big on the biggest stage. The one player who was unafraid to take big shots last year -- Simmons -- will be gone. Most teams need a go-to player to advance to the FF. What will be different next season? Who do you expect to be Tennessee's go-to player next season?

 

[ed4ourgirls]

. . . Who do you expect to be Tennessee's go-to player next season?

If I were a Tennessee fan, I would hope that Izzy would be that go to player and that the
Tennessee offense be designed to facilitate that.

But I recognize that hoping is not the same thing as expecting.

In the following year it will, almost certainly, be Diamond.

 

[RadyLady]

If I were a Tennessee fan, I would hope that Izzy would be that go to player and that the
Tennessee offense be designed to facilitate that.

But I recognize that hoping is not the same thing as expecting.

In the following year it will, almost certainly, be Diamond.

Yes, yet who is the go to player this year?

Cat makes a point, 2 points actually - Tennessee plays scared
- who is the go-to player this year?

Simmons was because she was not afraid to create her own shot, and because there wasn't a structured offense built around anyone (else)

I will repeat the oft repeated and say that they must learn and play offense AND - they need to overcome their fear - fear of missing shots, specifically. I have to ask myself "does the coach have confidence in her team?
do the people they recruit have confidence, some swag?

they need that badly this year. to have just the one player to depend upon as we know...doesn't always end well, especially since that person will draw the focus of the defense

 

[AnotherVolFan]

Harrison was ineffective due foul trouble in their loss to Maryland...IF she works on staying out of foul trouble next year, she could be an option as a "go to" player. Her offensive skill set in the post is pretty good. Defense still needs work. However from what I've been able to see and have heard... the ball will seem to leave Ms Tucker's hands a lot this year. IF healthy she's going to be a handful...reminds me of a KML but a bit quicker. I see why the girl was ranked #8 out of high school despite not playing her senior season. IMO Tenn..and I'm not being biased here, will be very good next year, with Massengale back and (-) Simmons...loved her will and determination but anybody with basketball eyes could see that Meighan was a "hit or miss" type of player....very inefficient from the field.

ND will make the FF regadless of losing Achonwa and McBride...Jewell Llyod is one of the best players in the country and bringing in Brianna Turner, who IMO was the best High School player in the country last year. Taya Reimer showed glimpse of being an exceptional low post player last year. I expect Muffet to put together a well balanced team that'll win the ACC again. And make it to Tampa

The other FF team is a toss up to me...its between SC and UCLA...that freshman class of UCLA's is going to be phenomenal and add another year of experience for Ms Fields and I see a "2013 North Carolina" esqe type of year for them.

For some reason I'm just not sold on South Caroline yet...they lost to Tenn last year, without Massengale and then to Kentucky in the SEC tournament semi-final and they really didn't play anyone spectacular last year. They have a pretty good team and my goodness Ms. Coates was phenomenal as a freshman. BUT that freshman class of theirs is really special. With a frontline rotation of White, Wilson, Coates, Ibiam, and Welch..they'll be scary to play...I look forward to UCONN playing them as well as us.

Next season will be interesting...a lot of teams graduated key players, however UCONN, Tenn and USC are the only teams, IMO, that returned a lot too as well. Going to be fun.....see some of you in Tampa